Anecdotally, as someone who lives in the very EV friendly Santa Monica, all Tesla's look practically ancient compared to the Rivians and BMWs I now see more of around town.
I would not call it ancient, because all cars look similar. Problem is, that those models are "old" in respect of design (no difference between 5 years old Tesla and 1 year old Tesla. If you are rich, you need "the latest and the greatest" every 2 years or so. And Tesla just does not fit the bill anymore
2: The decline is driven by a total collapse in Model 3 sales, the Y held up OK. That kind of divergence makes me question claims of general brand collapse.
Note, that the historical numbers for total BEV sales, including Tesla's numbers, often change when a new quarterly report comes out. Also, if you add up the unit sales of each Tesla model they report on, they often don't add up to the total shown in the table displaying total quarterly sales by maker.
They note that they source their data from Experian Automotive, which is somewhat of a disappointment, as it would be better to have real registration numbers. But they've been doing this for many years, so I watch the data every quarter.
If China saw a decline, CA saw a decline, EU saw a decline, and AU saw a decline...what states and countries were they able to find sales? The market in Korea was growing but...where else???
Q2 really could be the bloodbath we all thought it would be 3 months ago...
Using TroyTeslike's estimates for the US & Canada, it seems like the following countries showed the largest YoY in Q2:
Rest of the World (Ex-North America, China, EU, Asia, & Oceania): +28,989 units (143%) YoY
Korea: +8,749 units (360%) YoY
Canada (TroyTeslike est): +5,952 (131%) YoY
Taiwan: +1,560 (37%) YoY
Japan: +448 (43%) YoY
RoW deliveries are calculated by subtracting North America, China, EU, APAC, & Oceania results from total global deliveries. In Q2, RoW totaled 28,989, which is the largest showing since Q3 2023 (Q1 2023: 13,769; Q2 2023: 11,951; Q3 2023: 31,973; Q4 2023: 6,116; Q1 2024: 8,639; and Q2 2024: 28,989).
The RoW numbers are very lumpy and make you wonder whether any large fleet sales are being done at low prices.
makes you wonder if those Q2 deliveries are actually to customers...or just to inventory (which will clearly come out next Tues).
one ? for you: report in teslerati said the shanghai factory is back operating at full rates. how and why? clearly shouldn't be b/c demand is skyrocketing in china for teslas old lineup.
IMHO, the US GAAP says, that Tesla can count only deliveries, where the title had changed to the end-consumer. Musk eventually can "phase out" few thousand cars from quarter to quarter, as these figures are not audited on quarterly basis (unlikely), but they can also make a "fleet sales" to someone somewhere. That is much effective, should I be in Musk shoes, I would do exactly that. Heck, even the "family office" could take those deliveries and get 90 days to pay the invoice.
That would have "bricked" the entire fleet. You cannot drive Tesla without the monitor. This event is just another reason, not to have OTA. In fact, I do not follow, why people are so eager to have so many SW features in their cars. According to some research from UK I have seen recently, 70% of drivers do not know all functions of their new vehicle and from those 30%, half will set them only once.
Not to mention, that having large central screen is dangerous, because it distract attention.
Tesla (and many Chinese EVs) are like iPhones with wheels in terms of product life cycle. The entire low CO2 premise for EV is based on same car life as ICE/hybrid which is ~ 12 years. The iPhone of 12 years ago was the iPhone 4 that was not even 4G.
Anecdotally, as someone who lives in the very EV friendly Santa Monica, all Tesla's look practically ancient compared to the Rivians and BMWs I now see more of around town.
I would not call it ancient, because all cars look similar. Problem is, that those models are "old" in respect of design (no difference between 5 years old Tesla and 1 year old Tesla. If you are rich, you need "the latest and the greatest" every 2 years or so. And Tesla just does not fit the bill anymore
Brad, these #s are bad, but --
1: What's the source for the California model #s?
2: The decline is driven by a total collapse in Model 3 sales, the Y held up OK. That kind of divergence makes me question claims of general brand collapse.
The source for the data I used in my report is from the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA): https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q2-2024-auto-outlook-report-2/
Note, that the historical numbers for total BEV sales, including Tesla's numbers, often change when a new quarterly report comes out. Also, if you add up the unit sales of each Tesla model they report on, they often don't add up to the total shown in the table displaying total quarterly sales by maker.
They note that they source their data from Experian Automotive, which is somewhat of a disappointment, as it would be better to have real registration numbers. But they've been doing this for many years, so I watch the data every quarter.
If China saw a decline, CA saw a decline, EU saw a decline, and AU saw a decline...what states and countries were they able to find sales? The market in Korea was growing but...where else???
Q2 really could be the bloodbath we all thought it would be 3 months ago...
Using TroyTeslike's estimates for the US & Canada, it seems like the following countries showed the largest YoY in Q2:
Rest of the World (Ex-North America, China, EU, Asia, & Oceania): +28,989 units (143%) YoY
Korea: +8,749 units (360%) YoY
Canada (TroyTeslike est): +5,952 (131%) YoY
Taiwan: +1,560 (37%) YoY
Japan: +448 (43%) YoY
RoW deliveries are calculated by subtracting North America, China, EU, APAC, & Oceania results from total global deliveries. In Q2, RoW totaled 28,989, which is the largest showing since Q3 2023 (Q1 2023: 13,769; Q2 2023: 11,951; Q3 2023: 31,973; Q4 2023: 6,116; Q1 2024: 8,639; and Q2 2024: 28,989).
The RoW numbers are very lumpy and make you wonder whether any large fleet sales are being done at low prices.
Tesla’s sales in Korea suck https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/tesla-sold-only-one-car-in-korea-in-january-as-ev-demand-weakens?embedded-checkout=true
That article was about Tesla sales in Korea in Q1. Their Q2 sales of 11,178 were huge and look like a quarterly record.
how many deliveries in CA were cyberturds? Without those, decline is worse.
3,048
They should only represent a low single digit % of sales given their price and lower production rate.
makes you wonder if those Q2 deliveries are actually to customers...or just to inventory (which will clearly come out next Tues).
one ? for you: report in teslerati said the shanghai factory is back operating at full rates. how and why? clearly shouldn't be b/c demand is skyrocketing in china for teslas old lineup.
IMHO, the US GAAP says, that Tesla can count only deliveries, where the title had changed to the end-consumer. Musk eventually can "phase out" few thousand cars from quarter to quarter, as these figures are not audited on quarterly basis (unlikely), but they can also make a "fleet sales" to someone somewhere. That is much effective, should I be in Musk shoes, I would do exactly that. Heck, even the "family office" could take those deliveries and get 90 days to pay the invoice.
Isn’t there also a non trivial issue with a lot of 3 year old cars coming off lease (+ Hertz sales). I have never leased a car but I think it would be interesting to come after buying. Tesla model 3 three years ago and seeing basically the same car at a ~20% cheaper price. See note on used Teslas. https://cleantechnica.com/2024/05/31/wicked-low-prices-on-used-teslas-just-a-few-things-to-watch-out-for/
Do you have any data on Texas? They are all over the place, especially as you drive north of Dallas, they are everywhere.
What happens when Tesla’s FSD has a Crowdstrike event?
That would have "bricked" the entire fleet. You cannot drive Tesla without the monitor. This event is just another reason, not to have OTA. In fact, I do not follow, why people are so eager to have so many SW features in their cars. According to some research from UK I have seen recently, 70% of drivers do not know all functions of their new vehicle and from those 30%, half will set them only once.
Not to mention, that having large central screen is dangerous, because it distract attention.
Tesla (and many Chinese EVs) are like iPhones with wheels in terms of product life cycle. The entire low CO2 premise for EV is based on same car life as ICE/hybrid which is ~ 12 years. The iPhone of 12 years ago was the iPhone 4 that was not even 4G.