A look at the multitude of problems & legal challenges Tesla faces due to its half-baked "self-driving" technology; Which is why today's Robotaxi event is a sham
Another great insight. Tesla is the greatest stock fraud in wall street history.
To me, the biggest elephant in the room is we are talking about a fuqing taxi. I mean they act like they are unveiling a time machine.
Given that Tesla is neither a first mover nor actually demonstrating technical equivalence to Waymo and baid, let alone technical superiority , how are the going to achieve 700 billion in robo taxi revenue. Nevermind that the entire global ride share industry is projected to generate only 218 billion in 2029, Tesla is going to somehow because of its magical effect on everyone, get the world to make that industry 700 billion, of which they will have 100 percent? Don't ask me, ask Kathy wood, she put out that batsbit crazy piece of stock fraud to pump the stock on the last clown show, the shareholder meeting.
But aside from those minor issues , my biggest issue with FSD is : who the fuq actually even wants this ? What is the scale societal problem that requires this solution? So we can browse Instagram reels on the 15 minute drive to Kroger? All you need to do is drive on the new Jersey turnpike spur at night in the rain once and realize what moron should give up control of an 80 mile and hour projectile ? What in God's name could be so important that you would take that risk? I don't give a rats asce what musk says, or the nhsta for that matter, my hands are on the wheel and eyes on the road. I can look at Instagram when I get home.
The idea is that a massive percentage of Americans who live in the wealthiest country in the world but also live in communities that are almost all very car dependent will just decide to stop owning cars because Tesla robotaxis are so cheap and abundant and awesome.
It could be the case in 2075. I don't see that being the case in the next 10 years.
FUN FACT: Today, in Los Angeles WB CEO David Zaslav can take a Waymo-assisted Jaguar from his Beverly Hills mansion to the 20th Century Fox Studio lot, Sony, CBS Studio City, Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Apple, Nickelodeon, Paramount, UCLA and USC Film Schools, CNN's LA studio, William Morris Endeavour, CAA, the LATimes, Spotify, the WGA, the DGA, AMPAS, and TikTok... before heading to the beach, the Petersen Automotive Museum, LACMA, a Laker/Kings game, or a movie at the Fox Village Westwood theater co-owned by Christopher Nolan, the director he chased away from WB after delivering 17 years of critically acclaimed hit movies.
I dunno, it just feels like cheating for bulls to hype this thing up for six months and then go "oh man it might not be good tonight" lol. And its in bad faith because most of them arent actually positioned for a decline. Theyre still all massively long.
Like, I guess there's a chance we could see an absolutely soul devouring face ripper tomorrow morning. There's also quite a bit of short interest, so maybe it could get squeezy.
But for that to happen I think he'd literally have to walk on water tonight. High expectations should be heavily priced in given how insane the FWD PE ratio is.
You also have a few exits from top executives in the past few days, which could be an indictment as far as how unserious tonight could be.
I agree though that it is all a bit ominous.
One thing I dont think I've seen anywhere - Tesla has never actually referred to it as Robotaxi Day. It's the stupid fucking "We, Robot". It makes me wonder if it's going to be about Optimus and AI, with Robotaxi ultimately being somewhat of a sideshow. Which if true, should fucking pummel the stock lmao.
There already are robotaxis, currently in the market operated by several other companies, earning actual revenue. They even utilize a mobile app.
So if Tesla has an event that says "we will have a robotaxi too"... isn't this the equivalent of Amazon having an event and saying "we will have a smartphone too", like they did in 2014?
The Tesla bull thesis has never been weaker. I wonder how much longer the Billionaires and Millennial meme stockholders can prop up the stock? The event was completely ridiculous and it's a sad sign of these are the best companies the U.S. can produce. Tesla shares some similar patterns with OpenAI. But both have significant executive churn and over-promising baked into how they operate. That never ends well.
My gut feeling is that most institutional buyers & holders of Tesla's stock either weren't actively running money in 2008 or have no clue about how carmakers go bankrupt. Both are bad considering how many people's pension funds hold the stock.
Ryan, do you think, the office will continue in their effort to push the price up? Considering, what is in the pipeline, they better do, because this time, the drop may not stop only 20 down.
beyond the LT outlook ($60/sh or so), i dont know what will happen.
i DO know that buying OTM +Cs in the face of liquidation by fund mgrs is a great way to incinerate $.
the FO should be on hold near term as a result.
keep a close eye on short interest. his Apr $50/sh in a week was predicated on a gamma & short squeeze (that nothingburger FSD trip to china). i heard TSLA is again the most shorted name, but its % of float is what matters.
Someone propped the stock up when it dropped to $214 as it would look bad for the chart given that it breached the 100-day moving average of $217. Not surprised that it "miraculously" closed at $217.80 in the end.
I struggle to understand. The OI is like 2500 an the volume is like 10x of that. Are they just trading the contracts again and again. What does it bring them?
Feels like the scene in Der Untergang, where Hitler's trying to move around nonexistent armies to try to defend Berlin. And then goes on a massive tirade about the loyalty of his generals when he realizes its over.
I said 150 end of month...who knows where the bottom could be. Given that it was 140 at the start of all this shit...I'd like to think maybe sub 140? But that would be a generational collapse, even for Tesla.
Also, as much as I'm short, it's extremely irresponsible what's going on with the company. There needs to be an activist takeover from one of the passives or something. Tesla employs over 100k people. As much as we hate it it would not be good for the US economy for that ship to sink. Its extremely, extremely irresponsible for everyone that just enables this any longer.
I wonder if the purpose of all these robotaxi companies, besides making a profit, is to lower the accident and death rates on US roads. You mentioned all the data proving how bad TESLA FSD is. Are you claiming that none of these accidents would have happened without FSD and that FDS has not avoided any accidents that vehicles without it would have had?
This development is quite ridiculous, Tesla has dropped $20. Once again, I have closed this damn position, expecting the share price to recover a bit. Ideally back to $250 :-) to short it again. I hope, I am at least bit right.
Use of cumulative data seems to obfuscate a significant 2024 decrease in accidents using both NHTSA and Tesladeath data. Do you have thoughts as to what explains that reduction from the 2022 and 2023 data? Do you think there has been some real improvement in FSD has occurred (albeit not enough for a fully autonomous robo-taxi service with the current hardware/software package) or that there is another cause of the reduction?
Another great insight. Tesla is the greatest stock fraud in wall street history.
To me, the biggest elephant in the room is we are talking about a fuqing taxi. I mean they act like they are unveiling a time machine.
Given that Tesla is neither a first mover nor actually demonstrating technical equivalence to Waymo and baid, let alone technical superiority , how are the going to achieve 700 billion in robo taxi revenue. Nevermind that the entire global ride share industry is projected to generate only 218 billion in 2029, Tesla is going to somehow because of its magical effect on everyone, get the world to make that industry 700 billion, of which they will have 100 percent? Don't ask me, ask Kathy wood, she put out that batsbit crazy piece of stock fraud to pump the stock on the last clown show, the shareholder meeting.
But aside from those minor issues , my biggest issue with FSD is : who the fuq actually even wants this ? What is the scale societal problem that requires this solution? So we can browse Instagram reels on the 15 minute drive to Kroger? All you need to do is drive on the new Jersey turnpike spur at night in the rain once and realize what moron should give up control of an 80 mile and hour projectile ? What in God's name could be so important that you would take that risk? I don't give a rats asce what musk says, or the nhsta for that matter, my hands are on the wheel and eyes on the road. I can look at Instagram when I get home.
The idea is that a massive percentage of Americans who live in the wealthiest country in the world but also live in communities that are almost all very car dependent will just decide to stop owning cars because Tesla robotaxis are so cheap and abundant and awesome.
It could be the case in 2075. I don't see that being the case in the next 10 years.
FUN FACT: Today, in Los Angeles WB CEO David Zaslav can take a Waymo-assisted Jaguar from his Beverly Hills mansion to the 20th Century Fox Studio lot, Sony, CBS Studio City, Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Apple, Nickelodeon, Paramount, UCLA and USC Film Schools, CNN's LA studio, William Morris Endeavour, CAA, the LATimes, Spotify, the WGA, the DGA, AMPAS, and TikTok... before heading to the beach, the Petersen Automotive Museum, LACMA, a Laker/Kings game, or a movie at the Fox Village Westwood theater co-owned by Christopher Nolan, the director he chased away from WB after delivering 17 years of critically acclaimed hit movies.
LOL. Stock is down 5.8% in the premarket. Big anticlimax.
I dunno, it just feels like cheating for bulls to hype this thing up for six months and then go "oh man it might not be good tonight" lol. And its in bad faith because most of them arent actually positioned for a decline. Theyre still all massively long.
Like, I guess there's a chance we could see an absolutely soul devouring face ripper tomorrow morning. There's also quite a bit of short interest, so maybe it could get squeezy.
But for that to happen I think he'd literally have to walk on water tonight. High expectations should be heavily priced in given how insane the FWD PE ratio is.
You also have a few exits from top executives in the past few days, which could be an indictment as far as how unserious tonight could be.
I agree though that it is all a bit ominous.
One thing I dont think I've seen anywhere - Tesla has never actually referred to it as Robotaxi Day. It's the stupid fucking "We, Robot". It makes me wonder if it's going to be about Optimus and AI, with Robotaxi ultimately being somewhat of a sideshow. Which if true, should fucking pummel the stock lmao.
There already are robotaxis, currently in the market operated by several other companies, earning actual revenue. They even utilize a mobile app.
So if Tesla has an event that says "we will have a robotaxi too"... isn't this the equivalent of Amazon having an event and saying "we will have a smartphone too", like they did in 2014?
The safety stuff is so egregious. I wonder what NHTSA's motivation is to give them a pass?
Getting blocked by the Department of Defence most likely.
The Tesla bull thesis has never been weaker. I wonder how much longer the Billionaires and Millennial meme stockholders can prop up the stock? The event was completely ridiculous and it's a sad sign of these are the best companies the U.S. can produce. Tesla shares some similar patterns with OpenAI. But both have significant executive churn and over-promising baked into how they operate. That never ends well.
My gut feeling is that most institutional buyers & holders of Tesla's stock either weren't actively running money in 2008 or have no clue about how carmakers go bankrupt. Both are bad considering how many people's pension funds hold the stock.
10/11 early trading:
seems someone's family office is going to post a little drawdown in all +Cs for this week
and importantly next, as 10/18 +250Cs (highest OI at 39k) just saw their delta drop to 8.
little gamma squeeze in reverse as banks sell shares with delta unwinds
bulls should take heart in a company with an 84 Fwd PE with 0.0 prospects of earnings growth over the next 2 years. solid mgmt team too ;)
Ryan, do you think, the office will continue in their effort to push the price up? Considering, what is in the pipeline, they better do, because this time, the drop may not stop only 20 down.
beyond the LT outlook ($60/sh or so), i dont know what will happen.
i DO know that buying OTM +Cs in the face of liquidation by fund mgrs is a great way to incinerate $.
the FO should be on hold near term as a result.
keep a close eye on short interest. his Apr $50/sh in a week was predicated on a gamma & short squeeze (that nothingburger FSD trip to china). i heard TSLA is again the most shorted name, but its % of float is what matters.
correction: appears the FO is not on hold.
12cst, and today expiry 220C have traded 177k, 225C at 114k, 222.5C at 100k
for puts, 220P 113k, 215P at 100k, 217.5P at 80k
(there was crickets yday, with most active options just 50k. of course, IV was 130 (!!!), vs 70-80 for today expirys)
judging by volume congregating at 220, thats where we'll stay today. and my guess is we'll see OI at 220 for next week's DTE spike after today.
FO isn't just for pushing it higher, but also for a 'stop the bleeding' moment like this.
Someone propped the stock up when it dropped to $214 as it would look bad for the chart given that it breached the 100-day moving average of $217. Not surprised that it "miraculously" closed at $217.80 in the end.
I struggle to understand. The OI is like 2500 an the volume is like 10x of that. Are they just trading the contracts again and again. What does it bring them?
i asked data providers about this - got no answer.
i suspect this data is suspect...as the Seeking Alpha article pointed out, OI for MMs nets out.
the 220C traded 255k today.
assigning 50delta to it, thats good for ~ 13mm shs in the underlying
bonkers.
it lost $20+ of intrinsic value in one day.
bonkers.
i'd also point out that 140+MM shs traded today vs ~ 55M on thurs, when IV was 130 and options mkt was dead as a doorstop
Feels like the scene in Der Untergang, where Hitler's trying to move around nonexistent armies to try to defend Berlin. And then goes on a massive tirade about the loyalty of his generals when he realizes its over.
I said 150 end of month...who knows where the bottom could be. Given that it was 140 at the start of all this shit...I'd like to think maybe sub 140? But that would be a generational collapse, even for Tesla.
Also, as much as I'm short, it's extremely irresponsible what's going on with the company. There needs to be an activist takeover from one of the passives or something. Tesla employs over 100k people. As much as we hate it it would not be good for the US economy for that ship to sink. Its extremely, extremely irresponsible for everyone that just enables this any longer.
Great summary Brad
I wonder if the purpose of all these robotaxi companies, besides making a profit, is to lower the accident and death rates on US roads. You mentioned all the data proving how bad TESLA FSD is. Are you claiming that none of these accidents would have happened without FSD and that FDS has not avoided any accidents that vehicles without it would have had?
It was even worse than I expected 😂
This development is quite ridiculous, Tesla has dropped $20. Once again, I have closed this damn position, expecting the share price to recover a bit. Ideally back to $250 :-) to short it again. I hope, I am at least bit right.
Thinking about that, I should probably buy few shares long, I have a feeling the pumpers will attempt to buy this dip out.
Use of cumulative data seems to obfuscate a significant 2024 decrease in accidents using both NHTSA and Tesladeath data. Do you have thoughts as to what explains that reduction from the 2022 and 2023 data? Do you think there has been some real improvement in FSD has occurred (albeit not enough for a fully autonomous robo-taxi service with the current hardware/software package) or that there is another cause of the reduction?
Use of any data from Tesla to NHTSA is insufficient at best, but more likely untrustworthy.
I've been taken to task about highlighting the fatalities due to Autopilot/FSD.
At the fanboy's suggestion of using the "deaths/miles driven" metric, Tesla is only 17% safer than normal crash rates.
But this is based on incomplete data from NHTSA, which has enabled Tesla in publishing fraudulent statistics since 2017.