Again, could sound like a big time dumbass, but I think the sell off starts next Monday/Tuesday and catches bulls offside who think we're going to get a repeat of the last deliveries rally and/or a straight rally into robotaxi. Think we see 150 by EOM. Could definitely be wrong. But there's upwards of 4-5 "sell the event" events, including deliveries, robotaxi, earnings, SEC/twitter thing, and a McCormick ruling (unsure of the date, doubt it will be October at this point but needs to be remembered) that forces Tesla to (hopefully) recognize a legal contingency in the billions.
I agree and will add to my short going into the 10/10 event, but be aware that Musk could do something radical to make the stock go up (show clay models of new products and say they’re aiming to sell as much as the Model Y at more affordable prices, pump Optimus in some way that gets the Cult excited, etc.)
He’s backed into a corner with his crumbling car company and made some serious enemies along the way. It’ll be interesting to see how far he goes in trying to hold things up or how he burns down the house after deciding he’s got nothing to lose.
Great summary Brad. I am always amazed how much detail you provide.
I have never and don't plan buying calls or puts or shorts.
You are an expert, so I am wondering if it is actually true that it is possible to have basically infinite losses when buying and holding shorts?
I recall Jim Chanos being on CNBC all the time but then closing his fund with a tiny amount of assets under management left at the end.
I realize that a fund and a private investor are not the same but do wonder if you can do your investing style because you are convinced that you are correct, as you said at the end of this post?
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) - ‘Markets can remain irrational longer that you can remain solvent.’ The quote is often attributed to him, but some people disagree.
That FSD report is shocking. Great report as ever Brad.
Again, could sound like a big time dumbass, but I think the sell off starts next Monday/Tuesday and catches bulls offside who think we're going to get a repeat of the last deliveries rally and/or a straight rally into robotaxi. Think we see 150 by EOM. Could definitely be wrong. But there's upwards of 4-5 "sell the event" events, including deliveries, robotaxi, earnings, SEC/twitter thing, and a McCormick ruling (unsure of the date, doubt it will be October at this point but needs to be remembered) that forces Tesla to (hopefully) recognize a legal contingency in the billions.
The stock is up a lot, so it should sell on Robotaxi day. Odds are best on that day, I think.
I agree and will add to my short going into the 10/10 event, but be aware that Musk could do something radical to make the stock go up (show clay models of new products and say they’re aiming to sell as much as the Model Y at more affordable prices, pump Optimus in some way that gets the Cult excited, etc.)
He’s backed into a corner with his crumbling car company and made some serious enemies along the way. It’ll be interesting to see how far he goes in trying to hold things up or how he burns down the house after deciding he’s got nothing to lose.
This is precisely my point. Musk ability to come up with some new, extraordinary claim, is famous. You never know, what is the next hype going to be.
Motorhead...
I believe TODAY (9/27) was the court hearing regarding SEC/Musk and his failure to appear at scheduled depositions. Are you aware of any news?
I wonder how much money the FED provides MS to pump TSLA? Nice to have Jerome in your pocket.
The SEC’s Musk interview got rescheduled to October 3rd, one day after the Q3 delivery report, I heard.
We'll see if he shows up for this one.
If he doesn't, it'll only piss the Judge off even more.
Great summary Brad. I am always amazed how much detail you provide.
I have never and don't plan buying calls or puts or shorts.
You are an expert, so I am wondering if it is actually true that it is possible to have basically infinite losses when buying and holding shorts?
I recall Jim Chanos being on CNBC all the time but then closing his fund with a tiny amount of assets under management left at the end.
I realize that a fund and a private investor are not the same but do wonder if you can do your investing style because you are convinced that you are correct, as you said at the end of this post?
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) - ‘Markets can remain irrational longer that you can remain solvent.’ The quote is often attributed to him, but some people disagree.