Regarding earnings I will just do nothing and hold my short position and puts. I find it too hard to guess what is going on in longs minds. The situation at Tesla is as bad as I can imagine. A bounce is always possible but hopefully would be short lived.
I'm interested to see how the balance sheet evolves; I think inventory skyrockets on a per car basis which could give a GM boost but I share your concerns that the stock is technically oversold a bit.
Thanks, a good read as always. I get the feeling that Musk is now unleashed after the firings recently.
It will help interesting tomorrow. I imagine, with his new set of yes men, this will be his last chance to go 'all in' at Tesla for him. Sales are at the end of the line, margins are also, cyber truck is a flop, no new models coming soon. It has to be Robotaxis and they won't achieve it and the chickens will come home to roost.
I wonder if the share price reaction is bad this time he might step down, or maybe wait for his comp package vote. Either way, it's never felt so close.
We all know he's going to pump the "robotaxi" theme. The question is how much he assuages the fears of investors who think that scrapping the Model is "thesis-changing". If Musk doesn't equally pump "new models", the stock should fall further.
The only way the Model 2 thesis change and potential other new models makes any sense is if he was misleading everyone with "balls to the wall" and his other comments. It just doesn't make sense, and he doesn't seem interested in the plod of new models and refreshes.
It is make or break as Robotaxi is really wearing thin.
Taking into consideration Musks behavior on the Q4 call (last few minutes of the call), I expect him to collapse on this call or to start some unrecognizable mumbling.
That saying, I will sell half of my position into the Q1 catastrophe, as I expect that Musk as well as the share price will magically recover on Thursday.
I find it interesting to observe how the notion of a company operating in 90 day cycles has become totally engrained. If a business has a plan for 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc. and revises each time segment as that plan evolves and is impacted by economic and political developments, many of what has been written about TSLA in the last 12 months would have to be considered noise. I don't know if Tesla has such a plan (I only know the masterplan writings that seem to indicate they do), but I am willing to keep an eye on the long term and not assume that every cycle of downturn and adjustment immediately spells doom and gloom. It comes all down to trading versus investing.
Regarding earnings I will just do nothing and hold my short position and puts. I find it too hard to guess what is going on in longs minds. The situation at Tesla is as bad as I can imagine. A bounce is always possible but hopefully would be short lived.
100% agree. I'm just trying to size my positions over the next few days based on what the moron says on the call & how the stock reacts.
You can't be too cautious when dealing with a serial prevaricator, especially since the SEC is doing just that.
great post, Brad, thank you
Thanks for reading it, Lawrence!
I'm interested to see how the balance sheet evolves; I think inventory skyrockets on a per car basis which could give a GM boost but I share your concerns that the stock is technically oversold a bit.
I heard that Musk canceled his India trip because the new CFO said that $TSLA had negative FCF in Q1.
Thanks, a good read as always. I get the feeling that Musk is now unleashed after the firings recently.
It will help interesting tomorrow. I imagine, with his new set of yes men, this will be his last chance to go 'all in' at Tesla for him. Sales are at the end of the line, margins are also, cyber truck is a flop, no new models coming soon. It has to be Robotaxis and they won't achieve it and the chickens will come home to roost.
I wonder if the share price reaction is bad this time he might step down, or maybe wait for his comp package vote. Either way, it's never felt so close.
-
We all know he's going to pump the "robotaxi" theme. The question is how much he assuages the fears of investors who think that scrapping the Model is "thesis-changing". If Musk doesn't equally pump "new models", the stock should fall further.
The only way the Model 2 thesis change and potential other new models makes any sense is if he was misleading everyone with "balls to the wall" and his other comments. It just doesn't make sense, and he doesn't seem interested in the plod of new models and refreshes.
It is make or break as Robotaxi is really wearing thin.
Taking into consideration Musks behavior on the Q4 call (last few minutes of the call), I expect him to collapse on this call or to start some unrecognizable mumbling.
That saying, I will sell half of my position into the Q1 catastrophe, as I expect that Musk as well as the share price will magically recover on Thursday.
I think we should talk about the "long-term story" like the fanboys do. That's much more enticing.
I find it interesting to observe how the notion of a company operating in 90 day cycles has become totally engrained. If a business has a plan for 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc. and revises each time segment as that plan evolves and is impacted by economic and political developments, many of what has been written about TSLA in the last 12 months would have to be considered noise. I don't know if Tesla has such a plan (I only know the masterplan writings that seem to indicate they do), but I am willing to keep an eye on the long term and not assume that every cycle of downturn and adjustment immediately spells doom and gloom. It comes all down to trading versus investing.