clearly agree on the options pump w/ this stock. couple add'l observations if interested.
* IMO the move thur was A) MFO pump via OTM +Cs (your screen print nailed it--note volumes of 240-245+Cs), B) some index buying and C) underperforming fund mgrs buying high beta in an attempt to catch up and D) some short covering---but weight is overwhelmingly A)
* at present (9am cst Fri) sure looks like MM's are going to wipe all the +Cs 240+ at expiry today. --downside is that big OI at 230 is going to finish ITM, so MFO trading is not just a cash out across strikes.
* for the biggest single day move since July gamma squeeze, trading volume in TSLA (~ 100MM) lags badly vs what happened in July (~ 200MM)...Thurs had ~ 1.5MM +Cs trade, july would see ~ 2.5MM.
these gamma squeezes he tries work best with high short interest along with index buying. --i cannot validate how short the market is (as i dont trust timeliness of BM function "SI" <GO> but presently S3 Squeeze is 45---which is likely stale).
this is a total house of cards, and it just needs a catalyst to topple the levered buying support that is easy to overwhelm (9/6)---a correction / bear market would do it. trouble is powell is elon's best friend.
he's clearly not selling shares in Sept yet, not with the option pump. makes me think he's goosing the shares to increase his borrowing base to get credit for his twitter interest payment (which is > revenues).
ridiculous stock. crazy making. really appreciate your efforts brad as a voice of reason..
It may be a house of card, however lately I came to a conclusion, that Musk has simply too much money so he is able to "pay Tesla away out of troubles" anytime he wants. Brad it absolutely right in his analysis, but that is not enough.
Tesla has moved from $140 to $240 while its situation was gradually worsening. What prevents them to continue in this strategy up to $300? Fundamentally, the share price did not make sense at $140 and does not make sense now, being $90 higher. Since the share price "is just a number", nobody cares and it could be driven to $300 probably as easily as they did till today.
They/he just buy out any dip. This Friday was classic example of this pattern: 3% down, "somebody" has stepped in and killed the selloff. OK, Tesla was down 6 point at the end, but on the back of a rise of $17 day earlier. On Monday the FO will inject its regular dose of weekly call options and returns the share price where was.
The market is irrational and apparently can stay this way much longer than our short positions. I would not put too much of hope into the effect of 10/10 either. Tesla is going to show, that Robotaxi works in the fake studio environment and that will be enough for most. I bet, Musk is going to say, that they are not able to put it on the streets, because of regulators. Job done, another $20 per share up. Anyway enjoy they Sunday :-)
I also shorted more yesterday, right at 242.10. Impossible to know how high it can thrust but theyre running out of time, only a few weeks out from the big events now. Im still not fully convinced that robotaxi event even happens. That yellow car looked like a 3d printed toy car. Are they really going to showcase THAT with a dogshit L2 FSD? Deliveries I mean...a strong Asia probably cannot cancel out weak volumes in both NA and EU? And Elon. He's gone completely off the rails. Q3's gotta have nightmare numbers in store.
Anyone notice musk companies or related "trending" on X even when irrelevant by other trending numbers? Anyone else get followed by the tesla cult with a non blue check accounts mirroring the legit fan boy blue check accounts? Not surprised musk owns it he will get his money's worth from it in marketing
Brad, are you aware of this German court case where a Tesla owner is suing Tesla over the phantom breaking during FSD?
Apparently an expert was hired and gave his statement at court that the Tesla he drove was too dangerous to continue examining the phantom breaking as it let to dangerous braking behind the Tesla (despite keeping a safe distance) as non one would expect a car to break for no reason on the German highway.
Here is a video of it, it’s in German but if you use Subtitles and set it to “translate to English” you can understand it:
There are different versions for FSD. There’s Autopilot (on the highway, which the guy is using), there’s “Autosteer (Beta)” which I personally used on a Hertz Model Y in Iceland, that’s an older version of FSD (supervised). Lastly, there’s FSD for city streets, which isn’t allowed in Europe and AFAIK also not enabled.
great stuff brad.
clearly agree on the options pump w/ this stock. couple add'l observations if interested.
* IMO the move thur was A) MFO pump via OTM +Cs (your screen print nailed it--note volumes of 240-245+Cs), B) some index buying and C) underperforming fund mgrs buying high beta in an attempt to catch up and D) some short covering---but weight is overwhelmingly A)
* at present (9am cst Fri) sure looks like MM's are going to wipe all the +Cs 240+ at expiry today. --downside is that big OI at 230 is going to finish ITM, so MFO trading is not just a cash out across strikes.
* for the biggest single day move since July gamma squeeze, trading volume in TSLA (~ 100MM) lags badly vs what happened in July (~ 200MM)...Thurs had ~ 1.5MM +Cs trade, july would see ~ 2.5MM.
these gamma squeezes he tries work best with high short interest along with index buying. --i cannot validate how short the market is (as i dont trust timeliness of BM function "SI" <GO> but presently S3 Squeeze is 45---which is likely stale).
this is a total house of cards, and it just needs a catalyst to topple the levered buying support that is easy to overwhelm (9/6)---a correction / bear market would do it. trouble is powell is elon's best friend.
he's clearly not selling shares in Sept yet, not with the option pump. makes me think he's goosing the shares to increase his borrowing base to get credit for his twitter interest payment (which is > revenues).
ridiculous stock. crazy making. really appreciate your efforts brad as a voice of reason..
It may be a house of card, however lately I came to a conclusion, that Musk has simply too much money so he is able to "pay Tesla away out of troubles" anytime he wants. Brad it absolutely right in his analysis, but that is not enough.
Tesla has moved from $140 to $240 while its situation was gradually worsening. What prevents them to continue in this strategy up to $300? Fundamentally, the share price did not make sense at $140 and does not make sense now, being $90 higher. Since the share price "is just a number", nobody cares and it could be driven to $300 probably as easily as they did till today.
They/he just buy out any dip. This Friday was classic example of this pattern: 3% down, "somebody" has stepped in and killed the selloff. OK, Tesla was down 6 point at the end, but on the back of a rise of $17 day earlier. On Monday the FO will inject its regular dose of weekly call options and returns the share price where was.
The market is irrational and apparently can stay this way much longer than our short positions. I would not put too much of hope into the effect of 10/10 either. Tesla is going to show, that Robotaxi works in the fake studio environment and that will be enough for most. I bet, Musk is going to say, that they are not able to put it on the streets, because of regulators. Job done, another $20 per share up. Anyway enjoy they Sunday :-)
I also shorted more yesterday, right at 242.10. Impossible to know how high it can thrust but theyre running out of time, only a few weeks out from the big events now. Im still not fully convinced that robotaxi event even happens. That yellow car looked like a 3d printed toy car. Are they really going to showcase THAT with a dogshit L2 FSD? Deliveries I mean...a strong Asia probably cannot cancel out weak volumes in both NA and EU? And Elon. He's gone completely off the rails. Q3's gotta have nightmare numbers in store.
Anyone notice musk companies or related "trending" on X even when irrelevant by other trending numbers? Anyone else get followed by the tesla cult with a non blue check accounts mirroring the legit fan boy blue check accounts? Not surprised musk owns it he will get his money's worth from it in marketing
Brad, are you aware of this German court case where a Tesla owner is suing Tesla over the phantom breaking during FSD?
Apparently an expert was hired and gave his statement at court that the Tesla he drove was too dangerous to continue examining the phantom breaking as it let to dangerous braking behind the Tesla (despite keeping a safe distance) as non one would expect a car to break for no reason on the German highway.
Here is a video of it, it’s in German but if you use Subtitles and set it to “translate to English” you can understand it:
https://youtu.be/cs84N00NyIk?t=418&si=4KdsmdkqXBXw-6dp
Thanks so much for sharing this video. It'll be interesting to see if the German court takes Tesla to task.
This just shows that FSD is very away from being approved in Germany.
I thought FSD is not allowed in EU. And if it is not allowed, how it comes the guy is using that in the first place?
There are different versions for FSD. There’s Autopilot (on the highway, which the guy is using), there’s “Autosteer (Beta)” which I personally used on a Hertz Model Y in Iceland, that’s an older version of FSD (supervised). Lastly, there’s FSD for city streets, which isn’t allowed in Europe and AFAIK also not enabled.