I still cant get over the 6.9 energy deployment figure. Its baffling to me because they have signed several big contracts this year and their financials would lead you to believe they had a backlog of contracts to work through. Its very very confusing to me. They also claim they have the capacity to do 10 per quarter. What gives?
We saw what happened with Twitter's value with Musk being the only decisionmaker. Dunno why bulls arent running for the hills seeing the same thing slowly happen to Tesla.
Hoping for a gap down Monday. Tesla was buoyed by the broader market. Hopefully bulls get trapped over the weekend. Some of them are already calling for another rally into Robotaxi day. Good friggin luck guys
Tesla has frequently warned that energy deployments could be "lumpy" from quarter to quarter. Tesla IR's 2H guidance for deployments is said to be flat with the 1H levels which means Q4 will be around 6.6 GWh or slightly down from Q3's 6.9 GWh.
i've been watching the option market on this thing pretty closely the past few months, and i don't recall ever seeing that kinda volume on one strike. and all the premium got wiped as MMs pinned it at 250 on expiry. god bless the boy scouts on wall st.
as i recall, ~ 60k OI for 250s. --do the math, at 50delta expiry, thats ~1% of the mkt cap held by MMs, just for this strike.
(next weeks DTE saw the big OI position at 260 get shifted--was ~ 60k at 260 and now we see ~30k there but 50k at 270. bit of a stretch goal i'd think, gonna need a massive rally in SPY to get there)
brad, while i completely am in your camp on fundy's, i see this stock as being the 'bull market perpetual motion machine' enabled by elon being overcomp'd and unethical. here's the game:
well funded FO buys OTM DTE Calls=>MM delta hedge=> higher share price => higher borrowing base for elon (~60+% of his shs pledged as collateral per 2022 10k) => more $ for FO to buy OTM DTE Calls=> etc etc
(important things to note: this 'machine' requires fuel--ie continued premium from FO paid to MMs to force them to keep shares in inventory)
what breaks the machine? 1) any kind of bear mkt, whether its in SPY (index selling) or just TSLA as active funds rebalance out, 2) elon or other major holder sells shares, 3) regulatory / judicial news gaps it down. the leverage in options gets wiped quick when things go the wrong way.
(the high share price => higher borrowing base helps explain how elon's gotten away without selling shares, yet, to cover the twitter interest pmt)
reading a barclays writeup on 10/10, even they say its not a positive catalyst at this point. want to believe the selling starts in advance of 10/10, provided SPY doesn't rip up more from here.
and a move lower in TSLA shares as folks 'sell the news' this week sure seems like > 50/50 odds.
I think that Ryan is correct on the 'bull market perpetual motion machine'. Elon owes me thousands of dollars of therapy after all the time, energy, and money I've spent on this boondoggle.
If you actually want to make money shorting this thing, I suggest 2 things. First, use an RSI-based indicator like Brad stated. Second, stage your trades around actual events, like deliveries, earnings, and announcements like the 10/10 event. I'd say that these events are a 4th category that break the perpetual motion machine, because that's when big money flows out as they see the objective facts on how poorly things are going. No gamma squeeze can stop this.
Staying short for months at a time because you think the market will come to its senses / the SEC will come after Elon / any other exceptional event is a sucker's game. Maybe that happens in the long run, but it ain't gonna happen on Monday. Get in, get out, then watch from the sidelines. That's my biggest lesson from the past 3 months. The longer you stay short, the more time you give the vested interests to yank the share price around and gobble up your position.
100% agree. Also, note that even though some might feel it's futile shorting $TSLA due to its options market being juiced by vested interests, $TSLA had been slowly declining to lower highs & lower lows.
It only broke out of this declining trend on July 2, after reporting a 2.4% beat to Q2 delivery estimates. This pushed it up to its high for the year of $271 on July 11th before it crashed to its Aug-5th near-term-low of $182.
If Q3 earnings disappoint again, the long-term downward trend will get back on course. And if the rest of the market rises while $TSLA stays flat to down, this invites massive selling from its top 3 institutional shareholders which are all passive, index-trackers whose algos will sell $TSLA to adjust for its smaller weight.
I disagree. You look at the past couple years, Jan 24 it dropped 90 points in three weeks. Apr 24 dropped 40 points in three weeks (and would have fallen further if not for fake robotaxi announcement). They completely lost control of the price in the 1H of 24. They only got it back up in the 2H with just completely made up bullshit lol.
Deliveries sold off 20 points on a non miss. With no volume too. Imo thats a warning shot for robotaxi and earnings. The stock price is very nervous. I fully believe in this turd dropping 100 points into the end of this month.
Unless the bear market happens, the machine is unbreakable. And the bear market is not going to happen anytime soon, because keeping the stock market high is now a political mission. I guess, we are stuck. At best, we can get 20% down after the Q3 results...
Next week $250C contract had already volume over 90k. If I look at it right, the open interest is 11k. So each contract has changed hands 8x just this day alone. I guess, we can see now, where the FO wants to have the share price....
Sorry, its the Family Office of our favorite CEO :-).
Looking at my comment from the "Monday morning" perspective. I am even more convinced, that this week anyone, who is short, will take bit of beating this week. What will happen after Robotaxi event is anyone guess. Knowing Musk, he must have something up in his sleeves for this event. As you said, a clay version of "Model 2" with "end of next year" timing for production should do the trick. Hopefully some of his Robotaxi will crash :-).
After all the memes that went out after Musk jumping like a cheerleader behind Trump at his rally in Pennsylvania, I think $TSLA has trouble going up that much this week.
mon 10AM, i am noticing a distinct lack of volume in the options market (10/11 DTEs) relative to recent history for any AM, and unsurprisingly the stock is down ~ 3%.
it'd be down more but banks wearing this inventory position know to leak it into the market slowly.
(wondering: did elon turn the FO onto +C buying for DJT today? its up 15%)
Doing the robotaxi reveal in Burbank rather than the Vegas tunnels screams that it's not truly autonomous. The Vegas tunnels would be the obvious first deployment spot that makes sense.
& if they debut a dedicated cybercab that differs significantly in specs from the rest of the Teslas, they're opening themselves up to lawsuits from all those Tesla owners who were promised that their vehicles would be robotaxis someday, too.
The nail is in the coffin of full electric vehicles. "Viability is another reason Chinese EV makers are branching into plug-in hybrids. During an earnings conference in March, Gui Shengyue, a senior executive with Chinese carmaker Geely, said the only auto companies in China making money are the ones producing internal combustion engines.
“The pure electric-vehicle firms are not profitable,” he said."
Diablo IV's new expansion launches in the US on October 7th, 4 pm PDT.
So for Robotaxi Day, I'm expecting an Elon full of coke or ketamine, and very little sleep.
Just like at the Trump rally the other day.
I still cant get over the 6.9 energy deployment figure. Its baffling to me because they have signed several big contracts this year and their financials would lead you to believe they had a backlog of contracts to work through. Its very very confusing to me. They also claim they have the capacity to do 10 per quarter. What gives?
We saw what happened with Twitter's value with Musk being the only decisionmaker. Dunno why bulls arent running for the hills seeing the same thing slowly happen to Tesla.
Hoping for a gap down Monday. Tesla was buoyed by the broader market. Hopefully bulls get trapped over the weekend. Some of them are already calling for another rally into Robotaxi day. Good friggin luck guys
Tesla has frequently warned that energy deployments could be "lumpy" from quarter to quarter. Tesla IR's 2H guidance for deployments is said to be flat with the 1H levels which means Q4 will be around 6.6 GWh or slightly down from Q3's 6.9 GWh.
Its all technical momentum rn as shown by this Friday ramp. Wednesday option movements next week will be interesting.
The Tesla 250 calls that expired today traded 356K contracts. That's $9.4 billion in notional value. What a casino this thing is!
i've been watching the option market on this thing pretty closely the past few months, and i don't recall ever seeing that kinda volume on one strike. and all the premium got wiped as MMs pinned it at 250 on expiry. god bless the boy scouts on wall st.
as i recall, ~ 60k OI for 250s. --do the math, at 50delta expiry, thats ~1% of the mkt cap held by MMs, just for this strike.
(next weeks DTE saw the big OI position at 260 get shifted--was ~ 60k at 260 and now we see ~30k there but 50k at 270. bit of a stretch goal i'd think, gonna need a massive rally in SPY to get there)
brad, while i completely am in your camp on fundy's, i see this stock as being the 'bull market perpetual motion machine' enabled by elon being overcomp'd and unethical. here's the game:
well funded FO buys OTM DTE Calls=>MM delta hedge=> higher share price => higher borrowing base for elon (~60+% of his shs pledged as collateral per 2022 10k) => more $ for FO to buy OTM DTE Calls=> etc etc
(important things to note: this 'machine' requires fuel--ie continued premium from FO paid to MMs to force them to keep shares in inventory)
what breaks the machine? 1) any kind of bear mkt, whether its in SPY (index selling) or just TSLA as active funds rebalance out, 2) elon or other major holder sells shares, 3) regulatory / judicial news gaps it down. the leverage in options gets wiped quick when things go the wrong way.
(the high share price => higher borrowing base helps explain how elon's gotten away without selling shares, yet, to cover the twitter interest pmt)
reading a barclays writeup on 10/10, even they say its not a positive catalyst at this point. want to believe the selling starts in advance of 10/10, provided SPY doesn't rip up more from here.
and a move lower in TSLA shares as folks 'sell the news' this week sure seems like > 50/50 odds.
I think that Ryan is correct on the 'bull market perpetual motion machine'. Elon owes me thousands of dollars of therapy after all the time, energy, and money I've spent on this boondoggle.
If you actually want to make money shorting this thing, I suggest 2 things. First, use an RSI-based indicator like Brad stated. Second, stage your trades around actual events, like deliveries, earnings, and announcements like the 10/10 event. I'd say that these events are a 4th category that break the perpetual motion machine, because that's when big money flows out as they see the objective facts on how poorly things are going. No gamma squeeze can stop this.
Staying short for months at a time because you think the market will come to its senses / the SEC will come after Elon / any other exceptional event is a sucker's game. Maybe that happens in the long run, but it ain't gonna happen on Monday. Get in, get out, then watch from the sidelines. That's my biggest lesson from the past 3 months. The longer you stay short, the more time you give the vested interests to yank the share price around and gobble up your position.
100% agree. Also, note that even though some might feel it's futile shorting $TSLA due to its options market being juiced by vested interests, $TSLA had been slowly declining to lower highs & lower lows.
It only broke out of this declining trend on July 2, after reporting a 2.4% beat to Q2 delivery estimates. This pushed it up to its high for the year of $271 on July 11th before it crashed to its Aug-5th near-term-low of $182.
If Q3 earnings disappoint again, the long-term downward trend will get back on course. And if the rest of the market rises while $TSLA stays flat to down, this invites massive selling from its top 3 institutional shareholders which are all passive, index-trackers whose algos will sell $TSLA to adjust for its smaller weight.
I disagree. You look at the past couple years, Jan 24 it dropped 90 points in three weeks. Apr 24 dropped 40 points in three weeks (and would have fallen further if not for fake robotaxi announcement). They completely lost control of the price in the 1H of 24. They only got it back up in the 2H with just completely made up bullshit lol.
Deliveries sold off 20 points on a non miss. With no volume too. Imo thats a warning shot for robotaxi and earnings. The stock price is very nervous. I fully believe in this turd dropping 100 points into the end of this month.
Unless the bear market happens, the machine is unbreakable. And the bear market is not going to happen anytime soon, because keeping the stock market high is now a political mission. I guess, we are stuck. At best, we can get 20% down after the Q3 results...
Next week $250C contract had already volume over 90k. If I look at it right, the open interest is 11k. So each contract has changed hands 8x just this day alone. I guess, we can see now, where the FO wants to have the share price....
What does "FO" stand for?
Sorry, its the Family Office of our favorite CEO :-).
Looking at my comment from the "Monday morning" perspective. I am even more convinced, that this week anyone, who is short, will take bit of beating this week. What will happen after Robotaxi event is anyone guess. Knowing Musk, he must have something up in his sleeves for this event. As you said, a clay version of "Model 2" with "end of next year" timing for production should do the trick. Hopefully some of his Robotaxi will crash :-).
After all the memes that went out after Musk jumping like a cheerleader behind Trump at his rally in Pennsylvania, I think $TSLA has trouble going up that much this week.
mon 10AM, i am noticing a distinct lack of volume in the options market (10/11 DTEs) relative to recent history for any AM, and unsurprisingly the stock is down ~ 3%.
it'd be down more but banks wearing this inventory position know to leak it into the market slowly.
(wondering: did elon turn the FO onto +C buying for DJT today? its up 15%)
Retail Investor Had Too Much Tesla https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-07/retail-investor-had-too-much-tesla
Doing the robotaxi reveal in Burbank rather than the Vegas tunnels screams that it's not truly autonomous. The Vegas tunnels would be the obvious first deployment spot that makes sense.
& if they debut a dedicated cybercab that differs significantly in specs from the rest of the Teslas, they're opening themselves up to lawsuits from all those Tesla owners who were promised that their vehicles would be robotaxis someday, too.
The nail is in the coffin of full electric vehicles. "Viability is another reason Chinese EV makers are branching into plug-in hybrids. During an earnings conference in March, Gui Shengyue, a senior executive with Chinese carmaker Geely, said the only auto companies in China making money are the ones producing internal combustion engines.
“The pure electric-vehicle firms are not profitable,” he said."
Source- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-07/china-s-ev-makers-turn-to-hybrids-in-pursuit-of-elusive-profits
A minor correction: as far as I can tell, Ford is not a junk credit at this time. Has been before, could be again, but not at the moment.
Thanks. It seems like S&P and Fitch rate Ford's debt at one notch above junk status, whereas Moody's Ba1 is a junk rating.
TSLA and CVNA are locked in a stupidity slapfight. Sometimes, if I angle the monitor just right, CVNA appears as the slightly more stupid of the two.
lmao