Don’t forget the “paint it black” video years ago. It proves Musk is absolutely willing to fabricate an impressive event on 8/8 even if it is pure fantasy. I could imagine Optimus getting in a newly released robotaxi and driving around town with no steering wheel. There could be a remote control driver but nobody would care. Stonk moon.
great stuff as always brad. --particularly fond of the notion "if they can't make a truck, how are they going to make it drive itself, or a robot?" logic that escapes the market.
i'm a buyer of the musk family call option pump. --i've been running MOSO and here's some daily option volume on top 10 traded TSLA options for the past few days
6/7: 245k
6/10, 11, 14: 330k / 410k / 495k
6/17 (+$10) ,18: 976k / 630k
6/25, 26 (+$10): 704k / 1310k---with the 200c getting 320k , moving Max Pain to 190 (from 185)
no one buys OTM calls expiring friday for EOQ window dressing.
key level IMO is ~206 (200d m.a and closing gap from Jan)--if it fails there, back down we go.
PS: i find the timing of the SpaceX tender (today, at $210B, shares avail if you want them!) highly suspicious and in support of the 'margin call Mr Musk" theory.
note: depending on when the spaceX tender gets done, it takes considerable downside risk off of TSLA (no forced selling from Mr Musk). can still go down slowly, but a plunge is very tough without a forced unwind
Stock market is no longer for investors, but traders. I need to change my mindset in order to survive in this environment. Problem with Tesla is, that with relatively small cash, Musk is able at anytime to drive shareprice high and wipe out short positions.
If Tesla’s earnings continue to get worse and FCF is negative, no amount of call buying can stop the stock from getting sold off, imo.
The only thing that saved TSLA from not getting sold off more in 2023 was its inclusion in the Magnificent 7. To some extent, the delusion of Tesla being an AI stock continues to keep it propped up.
This is why Musk continues—at every step of the way—to promote Tesla as an “AI/robotics” company, not a carmaker. Tesla has never published any numbers related to their AI/robotics business.
Exactly how I interpret the post-Q1 results rally in TSLA. The only thing I differ with is that short-squeezing caused part of that rally. Not true. The current short interest in TSLA is the 2nd least shorted stock among the Magnificent 7 (NVDA has 0.8x ADV in short interest & TSLA has 1.5x). MSFT is the most shorted at 4x ADV.
Seems bizarre that the controlling shareholder of a $500B mkt cap company may be manipulating the stock w/well timed call option buys and there's no law or regulation to prevent it, nor is there any disclosure.
I find it very hard to "understand" the share price moves. Call buyers could also be retail investors. Yesterday EVs were a hot topic again with Volkswagen investing in Rivian. Maybe this even caused some buying in Tesla. It was seen as a postive, at a time when positive news about EVs were not many.
Tesla was slightly down in the after hours after the VW investment in Rivian was announced while Rivian’s stock was up 50%. Maybe that prompted call buying in Tesla the next day.
TY. It seems the irrational buyers in Tesla stock make it still hard for shorts. AI brought back a positive sentiment for the stock market and speculative investments, I think.
Thx for that. FYI, a Morgan Stanley and a 110 pages + initiation research BUY note by Stifel were published yesterday, that may have helped the share price to move higher.
Broker reports don't usually impact the stock price that much unless it's an influential analyst changing his/her rating to buy or sell. Adam Jonas' "Dojo" report which raised TSLA from Neutral to Overweight in September 2023 moved the stock by 10% the following day.
That China FSD thing was very, very weird. The way how it was completely unconfirmed, that the underlying source was some random Chinese article that may or may not have been translated properly...but every single publisher ran with the story and posted it, and nobody tried to confirm it, and nobody came out and said whoops our fault it wasnt true. Just got memoryholed instead.
The grime doesnt stop there though. Daily articles from The Motley Fool asking "Is Tesla A Buy?". Financial platforms taking seriously the Optimus and FSD stuff, like Eifel and Morgan Stanley (any serious insider could figure out how far behind they actually are).
On the other side of that, no serious publication is running stories about the likelihood of the comp vote being called off again (seemingly, very likely). Or bringing up that Tesla has three days to get FSD data to the NHTSA, else face big fines, future lawsuits...maybe it opens themselves up to another recall
Something stinks real bad about all of this. Real bad. Tesla might break soon.
Current valuation is devoid from reality. Makes no sense at all.
Don’t forget the “paint it black” video years ago. It proves Musk is absolutely willing to fabricate an impressive event on 8/8 even if it is pure fantasy. I could imagine Optimus getting in a newly released robotaxi and driving around town with no steering wheel. There could be a remote control driver but nobody would care. Stonk moon.
Optimus might take a robo taxi facing backwards to fetch Elon a sandwich on stage.
great stuff as always brad. --particularly fond of the notion "if they can't make a truck, how are they going to make it drive itself, or a robot?" logic that escapes the market.
i'm a buyer of the musk family call option pump. --i've been running MOSO and here's some daily option volume on top 10 traded TSLA options for the past few days
6/7: 245k
6/10, 11, 14: 330k / 410k / 495k
6/17 (+$10) ,18: 976k / 630k
6/25, 26 (+$10): 704k / 1310k---with the 200c getting 320k , moving Max Pain to 190 (from 185)
no one buys OTM calls expiring friday for EOQ window dressing.
key level IMO is ~206 (200d m.a and closing gap from Jan)--if it fails there, back down we go.
Yes, if it fails at $206 it'll be a classic head & shoulders pattern. There'll undoubtedly be a buy-sell battle at that level.
PS: i find the timing of the SpaceX tender (today, at $210B, shares avail if you want them!) highly suspicious and in support of the 'margin call Mr Musk" theory.
note: depending on when the spaceX tender gets done, it takes considerable downside risk off of TSLA (no forced selling from Mr Musk). can still go down slowly, but a plunge is very tough without a forced unwind
Stock market is no longer for investors, but traders. I need to change my mindset in order to survive in this environment. Problem with Tesla is, that with relatively small cash, Musk is able at anytime to drive shareprice high and wipe out short positions.
If Tesla’s earnings continue to get worse and FCF is negative, no amount of call buying can stop the stock from getting sold off, imo.
The only thing that saved TSLA from not getting sold off more in 2023 was its inclusion in the Magnificent 7. To some extent, the delusion of Tesla being an AI stock continues to keep it propped up.
This is why Musk continues—at every step of the way—to promote Tesla as an “AI/robotics” company, not a carmaker. Tesla has never published any numbers related to their AI/robotics business.
Anyone know if there any reporting requirements for call option purchases by someone with a controlling stake in the company?
I heard that there are no reporting requirements for anything under 30 days' maturity, so weekly options can be traded without reporting.
i think we can now safely put to bed why stock went up after disaster Q1 earnings.
1) he knew outstanding short position was large going in (his bankers could tell him, as could S3 data feeds)
2) family office bought massive OTM calls post earnings, forced delta hedging from banks & short squeeze
3) trip to china (likely known in advance of 1) was to wipe out balance of shorts
why do it? when faced with a ruinous margin call, might as well go w/ a hail mary pass---some work. this one did.
Exactly how I interpret the post-Q1 results rally in TSLA. The only thing I differ with is that short-squeezing caused part of that rally. Not true. The current short interest in TSLA is the 2nd least shorted stock among the Magnificent 7 (NVDA has 0.8x ADV in short interest & TSLA has 1.5x). MSFT is the most shorted at 4x ADV.
Seems bizarre that the controlling shareholder of a $500B mkt cap company may be manipulating the stock w/well timed call option buys and there's no law or regulation to prevent it, nor is there any disclosure.
I find it very hard to "understand" the share price moves. Call buyers could also be retail investors. Yesterday EVs were a hot topic again with Volkswagen investing in Rivian. Maybe this even caused some buying in Tesla. It was seen as a postive, at a time when positive news about EVs were not many.
Tesla was slightly down in the after hours after the VW investment in Rivian was announced while Rivian’s stock was up 50%. Maybe that prompted call buying in Tesla the next day.
TY. It seems the irrational buyers in Tesla stock make it still hard for shorts. AI brought back a positive sentiment for the stock market and speculative investments, I think.
Thx for that. FYI, a Morgan Stanley and a 110 pages + initiation research BUY note by Stifel were published yesterday, that may have helped the share price to move higher.
Broker reports don't usually impact the stock price that much unless it's an influential analyst changing his/her rating to buy or sell. Adam Jonas' "Dojo" report which raised TSLA from Neutral to Overweight in September 2023 moved the stock by 10% the following day.
I wouldn’t be shocked if one day a forensics reporter managed to piece together a massive stock pump scheme behind this.
That China FSD thing was very, very weird. The way how it was completely unconfirmed, that the underlying source was some random Chinese article that may or may not have been translated properly...but every single publisher ran with the story and posted it, and nobody tried to confirm it, and nobody came out and said whoops our fault it wasnt true. Just got memoryholed instead.
The grime doesnt stop there though. Daily articles from The Motley Fool asking "Is Tesla A Buy?". Financial platforms taking seriously the Optimus and FSD stuff, like Eifel and Morgan Stanley (any serious insider could figure out how far behind they actually are).
On the other side of that, no serious publication is running stories about the likelihood of the comp vote being called off again (seemingly, very likely). Or bringing up that Tesla has three days to get FSD data to the NHTSA, else face big fines, future lawsuits...maybe it opens themselves up to another recall
Something stinks real bad about all of this. Real bad. Tesla might break soon.