Daily tweets by Musk & top Tesla executives to "vote yes" for Musk's $47 billion comp plan to be re-ratified shows intense fear of a "No" vote at Tesla
tesla have the live results of the vote right? if they knew it was going to pass they wouldnt be running campaigns in the final days. would Elon have had a big apple tantrum the other day if the numbers looked promising?
there's also a coordinated pump today with the MS and ARK investor notes (i believe MS financed his twitter deal?). at the very least, it will be tight and all the signs are pointing to that.
Im short a fuckton of stock. Im going to get margin'd if it passes lmao. I'll just weather the storm. The Texas vote has no shot at passing and the Delaware judge moves fast -- vote gets thrown out by next Friday I reckon.
I would looked at it this way: no matter the vote, there isnt, IMHO, for TSLA any other path than down. I dont see any catalyst to change the trajectory. Unless of course Musk invents some sort of BS (and he is damn good at that) to support the value. Q2 is going to be miserable, the 8/8 event - I dont know, what to think of it. Apart of the 88 acronym, I do not see how Musk can make the robotaxi.
Long term TSLA is going down. Q2 cashflows should be miserable. But earnings could be incredible. All these cars being produced and going to inventory do not hurt earnings. Only cashflows. On top of that, if the overall earnings call looks like it will be bad, fElon can just do a stock pump. For example an earnings pump by selling bitcoin. Or another Optimus pump. The 8/8 event will be held on a stage. The app UI will look fantastic. A new car will be unveiled specifically targeting robotaxi. And the robotaxi network will be running "next year." How could the monkey not buy on that?
Well. I have just seen pre-market and retail just went ballistic. $12 up. This is going to be a difficult day for anyone holding TSLA short. Good luck to all.
I have to admit, it did not go "that well". Tesla share price is flat after hours. It is no "victory lap" and it may even start falling tomorrow. Why those assholes are not exited, when they got what asked for? I was hoping to see TSLA above $190!
They can sell BTC & it will only cover part of the charges from laying off 20% of the workforce. Deliveries are only up around 7% QoQ despite further price cuts. China exports to the EU are also falling off a cliff & that factory accounted for 70% of global profits. Earnings will be quite bad, imo.
Absolutely no panic buying happened. Should I left my short position unchanged, it would have been a 24 hours drama, but I would be on the same money, I was prior the vote. I guess, it is about a time to open the short position again. Which will happen anyway, with my 180 Puts...
Given we now know the result, and it's overwhelmingly yes, even on the reincorporation to Texas, I can't see how those numbers came through without some of the biggest institutional investors voting for both resolutions. e.g., Vanguard and Blackrock. It's either that or a near 100% turnout from the retail guys. Both seem pretty implausible, but I think it must be one or the other.
Now Reuters reporting that Vanguard voted yes, and NYT suggests Blackrock did too. That's a >13% no to yes: >27% swing and pretty much explains the result. Decent turnout from retail, but basically driven by the biggest institutional guys voting yes even though (at least in Vanguard's case) they voted no on the package in the first place.
Vanguard and other ETFs that voted No last time were the big swing vote, as you pointed out. Vanguard--which voted No in 2018--said in a note about its vote that, "the unique circumstance of evaluating the plan retroactively eliminated our concerns."
Vanguard, at 7% of shares outstanding, is the biggest shareholder after Musk. My suspicion is that they feared not only the impact on their funds if TSLA crashed from a No vote, but also being seen as the key vote to have brought TSLA down.
Nice, simple and clear. Had earlier come to a similar point of view, based on a “what would you need to believe about the retail investor turnout” analysis. That seems to be the critical variable - got to have it into the 50s or 60s to make it happen.
One piece of information I’m missing - the retail turnout last time. I’ve looked at the results of the 2018 vote, but can’t see how to derive the retail turnout % then. Do you have an estimate?
(Also, to state the obvious: approval of incorporation in Texas looks out of reach by a similar analysis just bc an abstention counts as a “no”. Though can Elon/Kimball vote on that one?)
Figure 10 in the report shows that retail voter turnout overall (not just Tesla) is around 30%, down from 32% in 2019.
The Texas vote requires an absolute majority of over 50% of shareholders (unlike Musk's comp plan which only requires over 50% of voter turnout), so I think it's unlikely to pass.
Yes. And you’ve assumed it’s much higher than that 30% - I think rightly. All the noise, drama, more engagement from Tesla retail investors than random stock x will push it higher.
But pretty much the whole ballgame comes down to “how much higher than that standard 30%?”. If it’s double or more, it’s almost certainly going to pass. If it’s only a bit more, it might well not.
So we need more indicators. One obvious one is the panic in Tesla you’ve pointed to, who clearly want to up it.
Another obvious question would be how much it was in 2018 when the package was first voted on - it looks possible to derive that number from the voting records, but I can’t make sense of it. Just wondering if you could.
I haven't seen any split between Yes & No votes by shareholder type (retail, institutional, etc) from the 2018 vote, so can't do that analysis.
What is certain is that passive investors (Vanguard, BlackRock,etc) have massively surpassed the weight of retail & mutual funds ever since TSLA was included in the S&P 500 in 2021.
* 57% of his existing shares (the vast majority of his wealth) is pledged as collateral (Liam Denning reported in BM).
* like kirkhorn et al (who left & cashed out), he knows the prospects of the business are dire with zero growth likely over the next 2 years (forward PE of 70 for NTM)
* all those other ventures he's enamored with require capital
if he gets the Y, he takes the risk of margin call off the table, levers up further to support Xai and all that other crap.
if he does not, he's not going anywhere (unless he's willing to be a single $Billion billionaire)---leaving would tank the stock. instead, he's going to stay, totally boxed in, unable to lever his existing massive wealth for outside endeavors and runs the risk of a margin call with a drop towards fair value
Musk has recused himself in the past from votes, - votes he was shure to win.
I wouldn't be suprised if he voted, or at least his brother. Might be bad for optics but its not like he cares. Or is there any hard rule against him voting?
Brad, if you like my opinion, then it implies, that your call 54% for NO is likely wrong:-). Because shares in the family office will probably decide the vote. As painful as it may be, I sent away all short shares today, hoping I may sell them again north of $210, because the excitement will be there. And I hope to drive them down to $100 once all the idiots realize, that Delaware is going to reject this package on the same ground as the previous one.
Still pondering, whether I should put some protection south of $190 in a case, that you are right. But the 14th of June Puts can wait till tomorrow, because the excitement may drive $TSLA over $200 even prior the meeting.
Just my 2 cents, of course. Lets see, how wrong, I am going to be this time.
Agreed. Shorting TSLA in this euphoric market when everything is bullish and stonks only go up is one thing. But doing when there's a known catalyst for euphoria -- no thank you! I may join the shorts in August but not today.
In what category have you placed the large holders such as the Norway Wealth Fund and the big pension funds?
A "No" vote by the Norwegian fund, for example, offsets a lot of small investor's votes
The 90% of retail that Musk claims was probably 90% of the retail voters, not 90% of the votes. Many of those retail investors were probably small shareholders, fan boys egged on by the cult, lots of voters but very few votes.
tesla have the live results of the vote right? if they knew it was going to pass they wouldnt be running campaigns in the final days. would Elon have had a big apple tantrum the other day if the numbers looked promising?
there's also a coordinated pump today with the MS and ARK investor notes (i believe MS financed his twitter deal?). at the very least, it will be tight and all the signs are pointing to that.
Im short a fuckton of stock. Im going to get margin'd if it passes lmao. I'll just weather the storm. The Texas vote has no shot at passing and the Delaware judge moves fast -- vote gets thrown out by next Friday I reckon.
If you're short $TSLA & $CVNA, I wouldn't be worried. You're a connoisseur of shit stocks, which will likely make you rich.
I would looked at it this way: no matter the vote, there isnt, IMHO, for TSLA any other path than down. I dont see any catalyst to change the trajectory. Unless of course Musk invents some sort of BS (and he is damn good at that) to support the value. Q2 is going to be miserable, the 8/8 event - I dont know, what to think of it. Apart of the 88 acronym, I do not see how Musk can make the robotaxi.
Long term TSLA is going down. Q2 cashflows should be miserable. But earnings could be incredible. All these cars being produced and going to inventory do not hurt earnings. Only cashflows. On top of that, if the overall earnings call looks like it will be bad, fElon can just do a stock pump. For example an earnings pump by selling bitcoin. Or another Optimus pump. The 8/8 event will be held on a stage. The app UI will look fantastic. A new car will be unveiled specifically targeting robotaxi. And the robotaxi network will be running "next year." How could the monkey not buy on that?
Well. I have just seen pre-market and retail just went ballistic. $12 up. This is going to be a difficult day for anyone holding TSLA short. Good luck to all.
I have to admit, it did not go "that well". Tesla share price is flat after hours. It is no "victory lap" and it may even start falling tomorrow. Why those assholes are not exited, when they got what asked for? I was hoping to see TSLA above $190!
It closed 5% lower than its premarket high. Not a good sign.
Q2 earnings will not be incredible. At all.
I hear you but what if he sell the bitcoin?
They can sell BTC & it will only cover part of the charges from laying off 20% of the workforce. Deliveries are only up around 7% QoQ despite further price cuts. China exports to the EU are also falling off a cliff & that factory accounted for 70% of global profits. Earnings will be quite bad, imo.
Please don’t get margined. We need rational bears such as yourself in this market.
Do they actually know, how the vote stands? Or is the information sealed event from the BOD?
Musk & the BOD can see the votes in real time.
I'm glad the index fund I have a small part of is likely, on past behaviour, to vote no.
Absolutely no panic buying happened. Should I left my short position unchanged, it would have been a 24 hours drama, but I would be on the same money, I was prior the vote. I guess, it is about a time to open the short position again. Which will happen anyway, with my 180 Puts...
Given we now know the result, and it's overwhelmingly yes, even on the reincorporation to Texas, I can't see how those numbers came through without some of the biggest institutional investors voting for both resolutions. e.g., Vanguard and Blackrock. It's either that or a near 100% turnout from the retail guys. Both seem pretty implausible, but I think it must be one or the other.
Now Reuters reporting that Vanguard voted yes, and NYT suggests Blackrock did too. That's a >13% no to yes: >27% swing and pretty much explains the result. Decent turnout from retail, but basically driven by the biggest institutional guys voting yes even though (at least in Vanguard's case) they voted no on the package in the first place.
Vanguard and other ETFs that voted No last time were the big swing vote, as you pointed out. Vanguard--which voted No in 2018--said in a note about its vote that, "the unique circumstance of evaluating the plan retroactively eliminated our concerns."
Vanguard, at 7% of shares outstanding, is the biggest shareholder after Musk. My suspicion is that they feared not only the impact on their funds if TSLA crashed from a No vote, but also being seen as the key vote to have brought TSLA down.
Time to short BEV in general https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/ford-ends-ev-dealership-program-that-required-hefty-investment-to-sell-electric-models/5503950/
Option commentary on TSLA:
before going into the vote day, the "max pain" price for 6/14 expiry was 177.5
(the max pain for 6/21 is 175, with over 3x the open interest than this week's expiry)
retail can run it to 190+ premarket, but the evidence continues to suggest the option writers / market makers are in control of this stock.
Silver lining: short more at $200
Do we know the timing of the vote results? Is it a before or after market event on June 13?
It says 4:30 EST on the proxy filing, but I've seen different times. I'd confirm it yourself if you can.
TSLA likely pumps tomorrow then.
Nice, simple and clear. Had earlier come to a similar point of view, based on a “what would you need to believe about the retail investor turnout” analysis. That seems to be the critical variable - got to have it into the 50s or 60s to make it happen.
One piece of information I’m missing - the retail turnout last time. I’ve looked at the results of the 2018 vote, but can’t see how to derive the retail turnout % then. Do you have an estimate?
(Also, to state the obvious: approval of incorporation in Texas looks out of reach by a similar analysis just bc an abstention counts as a “no”. Though can Elon/Kimball vote on that one?)
Figure 10 in the report shows that retail voter turnout overall (not just Tesla) is around 30%, down from 32% in 2019.
The Texas vote requires an absolute majority of over 50% of shareholders (unlike Musk's comp plan which only requires over 50% of voter turnout), so I think it's unlikely to pass.
Yes. And you’ve assumed it’s much higher than that 30% - I think rightly. All the noise, drama, more engagement from Tesla retail investors than random stock x will push it higher.
But pretty much the whole ballgame comes down to “how much higher than that standard 30%?”. If it’s double or more, it’s almost certainly going to pass. If it’s only a bit more, it might well not.
So we need more indicators. One obvious one is the panic in Tesla you’ve pointed to, who clearly want to up it.
Another obvious question would be how much it was in 2018 when the package was first voted on - it looks possible to derive that number from the voting records, but I can’t make sense of it. Just wondering if you could.
I haven't seen any split between Yes & No votes by shareholder type (retail, institutional, etc) from the 2018 vote, so can't do that analysis.
What is certain is that passive investors (Vanguard, BlackRock,etc) have massively surpassed the weight of retail & mutual funds ever since TSLA was included in the S&P 500 in 2021.
That is true not only for Tesla but for most of the stock market these days. Everything is collectively owned by Boomers and GenXers in their 401Ks.
i think the Y v N misses the point:
elon is doing this standoff b/c of the following:
* 57% of his existing shares (the vast majority of his wealth) is pledged as collateral (Liam Denning reported in BM).
* like kirkhorn et al (who left & cashed out), he knows the prospects of the business are dire with zero growth likely over the next 2 years (forward PE of 70 for NTM)
* all those other ventures he's enamored with require capital
if he gets the Y, he takes the risk of margin call off the table, levers up further to support Xai and all that other crap.
if he does not, he's not going anywhere (unless he's willing to be a single $Billion billionaire)---leaving would tank the stock. instead, he's going to stay, totally boxed in, unable to lever his existing massive wealth for outside endeavors and runs the risk of a margin call with a drop towards fair value
Musk has recused himself in the past from votes, - votes he was shure to win.
I wouldn't be suprised if he voted, or at least his brother. Might be bad for optics but its not like he cares. Or is there any hard rule against him voting?
It clearly says in the proxy that Elon & Kimbal Musk are recused from this time's vote, just as the 2018 vote.
thx.
bunch of his shares is held by the family office and the charity. I have no doubt how these shares are going to behave...
Brad, if you like my opinion, then it implies, that your call 54% for NO is likely wrong:-). Because shares in the family office will probably decide the vote. As painful as it may be, I sent away all short shares today, hoping I may sell them again north of $210, because the excitement will be there. And I hope to drive them down to $100 once all the idiots realize, that Delaware is going to reject this package on the same ground as the previous one.
Still pondering, whether I should put some protection south of $190 in a case, that you are right. But the 14th of June Puts can wait till tomorrow, because the excitement may drive $TSLA over $200 even prior the meeting.
Just my 2 cents, of course. Lets see, how wrong, I am going to be this time.
Agreed. Shorting TSLA in this euphoric market when everything is bullish and stonks only go up is one thing. But doing when there's a known catalyst for euphoria -- no thank you! I may join the shorts in August but not today.
Even fans of Phony Stark will be voting against the ridiculous package, that says a lot.
Gary black's prediction is 54/46. If Gary Black of all people is projecting it to be that tight, it aint passing.
In what category have you placed the large holders such as the Norway Wealth Fund and the big pension funds?
A "No" vote by the Norwegian fund, for example, offsets a lot of small investor's votes
The 90% of retail that Musk claims was probably 90% of the retail voters, not 90% of the votes. Many of those retail investors were probably small shareholders, fan boys egged on by the cult, lots of voters but very few votes.