I keep hearing from time to time, that those $30 bill. of cash is not exactly cash but some "supposedly liquid" near to cash papers from respectable companies as SpaceX, Twitter or that tunneling company :-). Should it be half right, then BK is probably closer than anyone think.
Thanks for your work. I agree the stock is not down enough on this news. The inventory build up seems crazy. New models are missing. The general weakness in EV sales is adding to the problems.
-what is holding this stock together Brad? Can't be dumb fanbois, there isn't enough fire power. This isn't like Tesla stock, the pumps are desperate but the dumps are huge too. Tesla stock should have fallen by at least 20% on the delivery numbers. Coupled with the China numbers released by BYD and new car news which competes with Model 3?
-As for this "Tesla reportedly cut production in China by 23% from 6.5 days a week to 5 days a week…this is not factored into Q2 or 2024 estimates", do you know when did this happen?
-With this huge inventory, when do you see the next round of price cuts?
- FSD pump has failed. X is bleeding $. Space X is not that liquid. When is the next sale coming in your view? Can he sell before ER without a prefiled 10b-5-1?
I think the FSD pump by Musk is getting retail excited. I've been flooded with tweets from the fanboys saying how shorting now is insane, given the release of FSD v12. And there could be some coordinated call buying to keep the stock up.
The production cut in China was a scoop by Bloomberg last week. They said it happened in late March. They've already cut prices in various regions like Australia, which as become a big dumping ground for their Shanghai factory. In China, they raised prices but are offering low-interest rate loans (0.9%?) with a buyback promise of 45% of the value over 5 years (this is insane, as the cars are seeing their used prices plunge).
In the US, they raised prices by $1,000 but they're still showing huge discounts on their new car inventory. So I think they're pretty desperate. What will kill them is if volumes fall further. They've got such high fixed costs from their vertical integration that when volumes fall, it really kills them. Earnings should be horrible.
Another enjoyable issue by you of the TeZla chronicles.
However, I am unconvinced that the term "dip-buyers" best reflects the complete situation ('This is a sign that dip-buyers are still in power") Maybe a little, but not entirely. The chart this morning of TeZla price action is instructive. There were some Rembrandts at work in this issue this morning.
Thanks for reading. Maybe a combination of dip buyers and call buyers. The stock should be on its knees after reporting those "ex-growth" delivery numbers, but it's now higher (so far) for the second day in a row. Strange.
Is it possible that production was kept up in order to get the same cost allocation of overheads as prior quarters, which would let it keep margins and profits up at the expense of cash and a building inventory level?
I'm pretty sure that they thought they thought they could possibly sell as many cars as they produced, but failed in the end. There were a lot of "buy before March end" type of deals going on near the end of the quarter which showed their desperation.
Problem with Musk is, that this guy is extremely creative and fearless. After that news about selling about 9% cars less than last year, I thought Tesla is nailed. I was even more convinced about that, once they start promoting FSD. But I was not expecting that IMHO suicidal move with Robotaxi and "88".
Do you think, there is some chance, they may show "anything" which could remotely fit a narrative of a robotaxi? I assume, they going to make a presentation with an "Optimus like" video (I guess, they already have one on Tesla web site).
But still, apart of retail, who is going to buy into this crap?
People are just getting emotional exhaustion over Mr Musk’s Asperger behaviors. Now that Tesla, Boring company and Twitter/X are out of favor, people will move on. Tesla is like China. Neither can survive in a zero growth world which is destined due to global demographics.
I've been working on a report on how $TSLA could go BK if demand falls really hard. It's more relevant than ever now.
Is your report on BK risk accessible somewhere?
I'm in the process of writing it. It compares the situation at Nissan, GM & Chrysler to Tesla's current condition. I'll have it out next week.
Awesome looking forward to it
I keep hearing from time to time, that those $30 bill. of cash is not exactly cash but some "supposedly liquid" near to cash papers from respectable companies as SpaceX, Twitter or that tunneling company :-). Should it be half right, then BK is probably closer than anyone think.
Comp trial will be in August. Shareholders' vote before that is more important. I think that they finally send Musk a pink slip.
Thanks for your work. I agree the stock is not down enough on this news. The inventory build up seems crazy. New models are missing. The general weakness in EV sales is adding to the problems.
It's another clear sign that we're still in a bubble.
When will his negotiation on compensation due? Is he still talking about wanting more stocks
I think they need to do something about his compensation package before the AGM in May, I believe.
-what is holding this stock together Brad? Can't be dumb fanbois, there isn't enough fire power. This isn't like Tesla stock, the pumps are desperate but the dumps are huge too. Tesla stock should have fallen by at least 20% on the delivery numbers. Coupled with the China numbers released by BYD and new car news which competes with Model 3?
-As for this "Tesla reportedly cut production in China by 23% from 6.5 days a week to 5 days a week…this is not factored into Q2 or 2024 estimates", do you know when did this happen?
-With this huge inventory, when do you see the next round of price cuts?
- FSD pump has failed. X is bleeding $. Space X is not that liquid. When is the next sale coming in your view? Can he sell before ER without a prefiled 10b-5-1?
I think the FSD pump by Musk is getting retail excited. I've been flooded with tweets from the fanboys saying how shorting now is insane, given the release of FSD v12. And there could be some coordinated call buying to keep the stock up.
The production cut in China was a scoop by Bloomberg last week. They said it happened in late March. They've already cut prices in various regions like Australia, which as become a big dumping ground for their Shanghai factory. In China, they raised prices but are offering low-interest rate loans (0.9%?) with a buyback promise of 45% of the value over 5 years (this is insane, as the cars are seeing their used prices plunge).
In the US, they raised prices by $1,000 but they're still showing huge discounts on their new car inventory. So I think they're pretty desperate. What will kill them is if volumes fall further. They've got such high fixed costs from their vertical integration that when volumes fall, it really kills them. Earnings should be horrible.
Another enjoyable issue by you of the TeZla chronicles.
However, I am unconvinced that the term "dip-buyers" best reflects the complete situation ('This is a sign that dip-buyers are still in power") Maybe a little, but not entirely. The chart this morning of TeZla price action is instructive. There were some Rembrandts at work in this issue this morning.
Thanks for reading. Maybe a combination of dip buyers and call buyers. The stock should be on its knees after reporting those "ex-growth" delivery numbers, but it's now higher (so far) for the second day in a row. Strange.
I look forward to the future release of the title "Painting TeZla Higher|The Untold Story of Morgan Stanley In It's Finest Hours"
Is it possible that production was kept up in order to get the same cost allocation of overheads as prior quarters, which would let it keep margins and profits up at the expense of cash and a building inventory level?
I'm pretty sure that they thought they thought they could possibly sell as many cars as they produced, but failed in the end. There were a lot of "buy before March end" type of deals going on near the end of the quarter which showed their desperation.
Problem with Musk is, that this guy is extremely creative and fearless. After that news about selling about 9% cars less than last year, I thought Tesla is nailed. I was even more convinced about that, once they start promoting FSD. But I was not expecting that IMHO suicidal move with Robotaxi and "88".
Do you think, there is some chance, they may show "anything" which could remotely fit a narrative of a robotaxi? I assume, they going to make a presentation with an "Optimus like" video (I guess, they already have one on Tesla web site).
But still, apart of retail, who is going to buy into this crap?
People are just getting emotional exhaustion over Mr Musk’s Asperger behaviors. Now that Tesla, Boring company and Twitter/X are out of favor, people will move on. Tesla is like China. Neither can survive in a zero growth world which is destined due to global demographics.