Stock is up 27% in 6 trading days in possible anticipation of a beat, which was only 2%. Now Q2 earnings is the next catalyst and it may not be positive
The takeaway is that Tesla will continue to not generate losses due to their accounting methods. Therefore earnings will be boolish, 8/8 will be boolish, and the everything bubble is not over. I will at least psychologically short TSLA after 8/8 in the $200s as I've been saying for months.
I expect a robotaxi that has no steering wheel or pedals and also a fake "paint it black" style demo of the robotaxi autonomously giving Optimus a ride to pick up takeout for Elon. The whole thing will be theater. A magic trick. Stonk moon.
IMHO, at that part of article, Brad was referring to the factories utilization and their profitability. Just remotely related to the company profitability. I just vaguely remember, that, the loss on production is accrued in some balance sheet account, I am sure Brad has this handy and should be able to explain that better :-)
IMHO Tesla is intentionally delaying completion of its factories, so the depreciation does not go to the P&L, but with Capex to the Balance Sheet. That also helps to improve results....
Oh totally on delaying factories. And of course Tesla's low utilization of factories will generate actual losses. But not accounting losses. So stonk goes up. My point is that fraud is boolish in the golden age of fraud. TSLA does fraud is NOT a reason to short the stonk.
This would be an incredible short entry position...if I wasnt already short lol. $230-$240 is a godsend for a negative growth, 100x+ fwd PE stock. Now I have to figure out if I should cover and wait for a bigger rally to re-short, hold, or increase my position (that's already larger than Im comfortable with).
Also should be mentioned that Pelosi dumped all her $TSLA shares a week ago, in case anyone needs another indicator (on top of Gary Black getting all bulled up)...
Strong point on Pelosi. Insane that the market absolutely mooned NVDA and AVGO on Pelosi's buys yet for Pelosi's sell (TSLA) it did not puke it mooned anyway.
Another possible indicator: Peter Brandt posted a diamond top the same week TSLA peaked in Dec '23. He posted another diamond top today, except now he's calling it a bullish indicator. No idea how accurate he is but found it interesting.
I'm not short and don't plan to short until 8/8 (and might not even do it with real money then) but the case for a short has only gotten stronger since you shorted if you were already short. If you believe in fundamentals, which I don't, this is a slam dunk at $246.
completly ignoring battery megapacks, https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1808132126463705204, hard to argue with the article though. their car business is in trouble and fsd is a carrot on a very long stick. I think megapacks will keep them going a few years.
If you believe that Musk works with his friends on MS and funds to manipulate markets, makes sense that he pushes to pump the stock right now. I didn't have a big position but I'm completely out of it until things get cleared up. Q2 will likely see max cooking.
Brad, I'm reading lots of commentary in various places that cite the energy business as one reason to be optimistic. My understanding is that they purchase all of their equipment, batteries etc - - which would be the majority of the cost I would think - - from other companies. What are the margins on that business and what is their competitive position?
I heard that as well but I don't think this would spur institutional buying. The Energy business has 25% gross margins but no disclosure on operating margins. All they do is assemble battery cells from Panasonic and others into packages. I'd value the business at 20x, the average of Fluence and Nextera PERs.
I don't think there's any future in Lithium Ion batteries for grid storage, they are horrifically expensive and polluting relative to altenatives (similar to Tesla cars).
In the longer term, once the so-called renewable energy bubble bursts I expect we will see vanadium redox flow, which is recyclable and can take much greater duty cycles.
How long it will take for people to figure this out is a bit like shorting Tesla stock, gotta be patient and manage your book as best you can.
Tesla's "energy" business is worth the same amount as it's car business, it's robotaxi business and it's optimus business - a big fat 0 when utilisation falls from 80% to even worse levels.
They do, but they can be rolled over into longer durations. Also, I see a lot of pressure coming in the next 2/3 quarters. Stagnating deliveries and earnings. Lawsuits. Competition. Cybertruck flatlining. No material fomotaxi/fsd revenue.
I believe they're around 0.45%, but I'm mostly using options and ETFs so am not 100% sure. The short interest in Tesla has risen to 52-week highs, but is still low on a historical basis and only 1.5x average daily volume.
recall: EU implements 20% tariffs on all CHN-produced EV's starting 7/4 IIRC, adding to the bear case. ---trouble is this meme stock era in which fundamentals don't matter.
i'm reminded of what noted short seller Jim Chanos said: when you're short, position sizing is key. indeed.
Off topic, but I'm hoping y'all will celebrate with me having sold my Tesla for only 80% depreciation yesterday. Worst, most expensive, least reliable car I've ever owned. Teslas are abysmal cars but the guy who bought it from me already owned a Tesla and was getting a 2nd one for his wife. He was over the moon to buy it and couldn't stop telling me how much he loved his existing (far worse) Tesla. His kids were in high cotton too.
If true, what people write on Twitter, that the practice of gamma squeeze is back, then shorting TSLA will not deliver expected results. IMHO, the opposite side has practically unlimited resources and can keep buying option contract as long as they want.
Considering the effort to get the share price elevated, the financial result are probably not good and "you-know-who" is creating an artificial "share-price reserves" for potential drop. Just my 2 cents, of course.
It's easy to gamma squeeze when there's no huge negative news and a bit of slightly positive news (like Q2 deliveries beating consensus by 2%). It's not easy to gamma squeeze when there's bad news, such as Musk not getting his bonus award, bad Q1 deliveries, etc.
Regarding Musk's bonus award, there's a hearing on July 8th in the Delaware Court. It's not the ruling, but it should provide some insight into where the ruling--shortly thereafter--is heading (most likely no change to the original ruling, which should send the stock down).
The July 8 hearing I believe is specifically around implementing the previous order and the legal fees. NOT addressing the "ratification" vote. Therefore there's very little risk on the short side of the ruling being reversed on "ratification" and a good chance of the implementation details of the ruling looking bad for fElon. HOWEVER the cultists will ignore so stonk no go down AND the future hearing about the "ratification" vote is likely far more important because until then all insane people (99% of the market) will believe that the "ratification" has "cured" or "overruled" the ruling.
I am just wondering, when "you-know-who" buys 10 call contracts, then a market maker is forced to buy 1 000 shares (well, not exactly, I am sure, there is some magic formula behind it, determining how much to buy, but contracts "near in-the-money" should probably have full coverage). What happens when the contract expires, is the market maker selling those shares immediately?
Most importance sentence of the report: "Tesla has yet to generate losses due to their accounting methods."
I had a good chuckle when I read that line.
The takeaway is that Tesla will continue to not generate losses due to their accounting methods. Therefore earnings will be boolish, 8/8 will be boolish, and the everything bubble is not over. I will at least psychologically short TSLA after 8/8 in the $200s as I've been saying for months.
We’re already at $246 and no one—even many fanboys—take these events seriously anymore because they’re selling events.
Omar Qazi—a Tesla influencer—says not to expect anything more than a robotaxi that has no steering wheel or pedals.
I expect a robotaxi that has no steering wheel or pedals and also a fake "paint it black" style demo of the robotaxi autonomously giving Optimus a ride to pick up takeout for Elon. The whole thing will be theater. A magic trick. Stonk moon.
Also an uber style app demo that obviously won't be released with actual robotaxis until "next year" but stonk moon this year.
Proof robotaxis can be faked: https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1808151041898324382
Correction: $251
IMHO, at that part of article, Brad was referring to the factories utilization and their profitability. Just remotely related to the company profitability. I just vaguely remember, that, the loss on production is accrued in some balance sheet account, I am sure Brad has this handy and should be able to explain that better :-)
IMHO Tesla is intentionally delaying completion of its factories, so the depreciation does not go to the P&L, but with Capex to the Balance Sheet. That also helps to improve results....
Oh totally on delaying factories. And of course Tesla's low utilization of factories will generate actual losses. But not accounting losses. So stonk goes up. My point is that fraud is boolish in the golden age of fraud. TSLA does fraud is NOT a reason to short the stonk.
No sane people will gamble for a negative-growth equity with >100x PE when the risk free CD rate is ~5%.
No sane person would do that. The market, however, is insane.
This would be an incredible short entry position...if I wasnt already short lol. $230-$240 is a godsend for a negative growth, 100x+ fwd PE stock. Now I have to figure out if I should cover and wait for a bigger rally to re-short, hold, or increase my position (that's already larger than Im comfortable with).
Also should be mentioned that Pelosi dumped all her $TSLA shares a week ago, in case anyone needs another indicator (on top of Gary Black getting all bulled up)...
Strong point on Pelosi. Insane that the market absolutely mooned NVDA and AVGO on Pelosi's buys yet for Pelosi's sell (TSLA) it did not puke it mooned anyway.
Another possible indicator: Peter Brandt posted a diamond top the same week TSLA peaked in Dec '23. He posted another diamond top today, except now he's calling it a bullish indicator. No idea how accurate he is but found it interesting.
https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1808555465485271384
https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1737516321930383397
I think you mean $246.
I'm not short and don't plan to short until 8/8 (and might not even do it with real money then) but the case for a short has only gotten stronger since you shorted if you were already short. If you believe in fundamentals, which I don't, this is a slam dunk at $246.
$251
completly ignoring battery megapacks, https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1808132126463705204, hard to argue with the article though. their car business is in trouble and fsd is a carrot on a very long stick. I think megapacks will keep them going a few years.
So, Mr. Musk owns a "security company". Lots of entities have been classified under that umbrella.
https://x.com/outeastcheech/status/1808406308652974279
If you believe that Musk works with his friends on MS and funds to manipulate markets, makes sense that he pushes to pump the stock right now. I didn't have a big position but I'm completely out of it until things get cleared up. Q2 will likely see max cooking.
Massive blocks of TSLA options have been bought up Friday and after the delivery numbers release. Huge blocks, even for TSLA.
A. Dittman confirms embezzlement of NVDA chips:
https://x.com/MagicBerryInc/status/1808309330393084068
Brad, I'm reading lots of commentary in various places that cite the energy business as one reason to be optimistic. My understanding is that they purchase all of their equipment, batteries etc - - which would be the majority of the cost I would think - - from other companies. What are the margins on that business and what is their competitive position?
I heard that as well but I don't think this would spur institutional buying. The Energy business has 25% gross margins but no disclosure on operating margins. All they do is assemble battery cells from Panasonic and others into packages. I'd value the business at 20x, the average of Fluence and Nextera PERs.
I don't think there's any future in Lithium Ion batteries for grid storage, they are horrifically expensive and polluting relative to altenatives (similar to Tesla cars).
In the longer term, once the so-called renewable energy bubble bursts I expect we will see vanadium redox flow, which is recyclable and can take much greater duty cycles.
https://www.energy-storage.news/sumitomo-electric-brings-51mwh-flow-battery-online-in-northern-japan/
How long it will take for people to figure this out is a bit like shorting Tesla stock, gotta be patient and manage your book as best you can.
Tesla's "energy" business is worth the same amount as it's car business, it's robotaxi business and it's optimus business - a big fat 0 when utilisation falls from 80% to even worse levels.
Some 2025 puts should do the trick. Valuation is so obviously absurd, it's not a question of 'if' it crashes but 'when' it crashes.
Puts decay. Gotta nail valuation AND timing.
They do, but they can be rolled over into longer durations. Also, I see a lot of pressure coming in the next 2/3 quarters. Stagnating deliveries and earnings. Lawsuits. Competition. Cybertruck flatlining. No material fomotaxi/fsd revenue.
Hey shorty, how are those borrow fees treating you?
I believe they're around 0.45%, but I'm mostly using options and ETFs so am not 100% sure. The short interest in Tesla has risen to 52-week highs, but is still low on a historical basis and only 1.5x average daily volume.
ETFs?
TSLQ
i'd note that volume in TSLL has exploded of late (2x tsla etf), with massive moves early---seems tail is wagging the dog here.
and for those shorts needing a hedge, here you go
Why is this better than puts and shorts?
recall: EU implements 20% tariffs on all CHN-produced EV's starting 7/4 IIRC, adding to the bear case. ---trouble is this meme stock era in which fundamentals don't matter.
i'm reminded of what noted short seller Jim Chanos said: when you're short, position sizing is key. indeed.
Off topic, but I'm hoping y'all will celebrate with me having sold my Tesla for only 80% depreciation yesterday. Worst, most expensive, least reliable car I've ever owned. Teslas are abysmal cars but the guy who bought it from me already owned a Tesla and was getting a 2nd one for his wife. He was over the moon to buy it and couldn't stop telling me how much he loved his existing (far worse) Tesla. His kids were in high cotton too.
He's probably an enthralled shareholder.
Apparently everyone was happy fro this transaction....
If true, what people write on Twitter, that the practice of gamma squeeze is back, then shorting TSLA will not deliver expected results. IMHO, the opposite side has practically unlimited resources and can keep buying option contract as long as they want.
Considering the effort to get the share price elevated, the financial result are probably not good and "you-know-who" is creating an artificial "share-price reserves" for potential drop. Just my 2 cents, of course.
It's easy to gamma squeeze when there's no huge negative news and a bit of slightly positive news (like Q2 deliveries beating consensus by 2%). It's not easy to gamma squeeze when there's bad news, such as Musk not getting his bonus award, bad Q1 deliveries, etc.
Regarding Musk's bonus award, there's a hearing on July 8th in the Delaware Court. It's not the ruling, but it should provide some insight into where the ruling--shortly thereafter--is heading (most likely no change to the original ruling, which should send the stock down).
The July 8 hearing I believe is specifically around implementing the previous order and the legal fees. NOT addressing the "ratification" vote. Therefore there's very little risk on the short side of the ruling being reversed on "ratification" and a good chance of the implementation details of the ruling looking bad for fElon. HOWEVER the cultists will ignore so stonk no go down AND the future hearing about the "ratification" vote is likely far more important because until then all insane people (99% of the market) will believe that the "ratification" has "cured" or "overruled" the ruling.
I am just wondering, when "you-know-who" buys 10 call contracts, then a market maker is forced to buy 1 000 shares (well, not exactly, I am sure, there is some magic formula behind it, determining how much to buy, but contracts "near in-the-money" should probably have full coverage). What happens when the contract expires, is the market maker selling those shares immediately?
They would have to sell eventually. However, you-know-who could also keep buying call options.
As Tesla is short on cash, maybe they are pumping the stock so they can print more shares (to fund all the fomotaxi/fsd capex)