[SCOOP]: The Tesla Semi from an Insider's View After One Year: "Hot Mess"

PepsiCo employee says the Tesla Semi is a "disaster" & does 400 miles "at best" with round-the-clock servicing by Tesla engineers

After a nearly 5 years since being announced in 2017, the Tesla Semi was finally launched with great fanfare to its first customer, PepsiCo, on December 1, 2022. But, there was absolutely no data was given on pricing, Autopilot use, battery pack size, or Tesla’s original 1 million-mile guarantee of lifetime range. In fact, the status of the Tesla Semi has been classified as “pilot production” in Tesla’s Shareholder Deck for the past year since its launch and Tesla Semi drivers are forbidden (most likely by non-disclosure agreements) from speaking about the Semi, as CNBC reported here (watch from 8:20).

This is why it was with great fortune to receive the details below, which were told to a trusted automotive source of mine by a PepsiCo employee who happened to have time for my friend’s questions about the Semi at a charging station the other day (my friend has owned a Tesla and many other EVs).

But let’s first look at what Tesla promised about the Semi back in 2017, when they first revealed the new product and said it would be in production by 2019:

• 500-mile range (800 km) at a maximum load of 82,000 lbs or 37,195 kg

• 0-60 mph in 5 seconds vs 20 seconds for a diesel semi

• 100,000 in output by 2022 (only 90 Semis have been produced through October 2023, according to InsideEVs)

And after one year since its first deliveries to PepsiCo, Tesla has yet to divulge any data on the Tesla Semi except for a tweet from Elon Musk saying that the battery efficiency was 1.7 kWh per mile (a useful number to have with the details from PepsiCo below).

An Insider’s Review of the Tesla Semi

Below are the comments from a PepsiCo employee about the Tesla Semi. Please note that the text within parentheses are my comments, not that of the PepsiCo employee who provided the comments.

• PepsiCo only gets 400 miles at best with a full payload of 82,000 lbs (37,195 kg) on their Tesla Semis [this implies a much smaller battery pack than expected, as Musk said battery efficiency for the Semi is 1.7 kWh per mile, which implies a battery pack size of only around 700 kWh; at a 500-mile range, the assumption was the Semi had a battery pack size of at least 1,000 kWh].

• The constant use of the battery pack is unprecedented and is causing reliability problems for Tesla and other EV truck makers [similar claims coming from Uber drivers who use their Teslas over 300 miles per day, i.e., their batteries are dying quickly. This is a hidden cost that that Tesla Semi customers need to account for; if a 100 kWh battery pack for a Model S costs roughly $25,000 to replace, the Semi’s battery pack should be at least $170,000]. 

• PepsiCo did a 500-mile trip with the Tesla Semi from California to Phoenix, but it was just for PR purposes. The batteries completely burned out, which is why on PR trips like this, they bring three Tesla Semis, with two being towed on a diesel Semi truck, only to be swapped out when the battery dies the other two Semis on the 500-mile drive [this is why Tesla classifies the Semi as being in “pilot production”: the battery pack is not strong enough to deliver all the specs on range, etc. which Tesla promised in 2017]. 

• The PepsiCo employee said that the Tesla Semi is using “pouch” battery cells made in Nevada [this is odd, as all cells made by Panasonic in Nevada are cylindrical cells, but Tesla could be importing these pouches from overseas and packaging them at their Nevada plant. Pouches are lighter than cylindrical cells, so better to be used for the Semi]

• The Tesla Semi’s pouch-style battery pack appears to be problematic, as they were easily damaged during a spate of heavy rain showers in California this year.

• All Tesla Semis and other electric trucks are subsidized by California state and the Megacharger station alone cost around $6 million [these mega chargers can power up to 28,000 homes]. 

• During the installation process, the Megachargers took down the power grid for a good chunk of the city [imagine what happens when 100% of ICE vehicles have switched over to BEV in California by 2035].

• Tesla isn’t using special-grade truck parts for the Tesla Semi (i.e. weight and energy-grade heavy-duty parts).  Tesla is using car parts on the Semi, which is why it breaks down so often given the range at which PepsiCo is driving its fleet.

• There is a team of Tesla engineers on call 24 hours a day, ready to fly out and fix anything wrong with the Tesla Semis. No one at PepsiCo is allowed to fix the Semi. 

• Tesla is using a double wishbone suspension on the Semi which the PepsiCo employee said makes zero sense and shows how Tesla simply threw car parts—not heavy-duty truck parts—into the Tesla Semi. 

• Center seating, which looks cool in the Tesla Semi launch video, is actually not practical and not well liked by PepsiCo’s drivers.

• There is no consideration for battery longevity, which is another reason why the batteries keep dying and Tesla Semis need to be towed away [the Megachargers used for the Semi release 750 kW and only require 50 minutes for a 400-mile charge; that’s a ton of energy that will wear the batteries out quickly, but cost isn’t a consideration it appears; just performance].  

• None of the Tesla Semi drivers care about the fact that the Semi can accelerate to 60 mph (96 kph) in 20 seconds. People commenting on the Tesla Semi say it might help in passing other trucks, but PepsiCo’s employee said nobody cared [Tesla uses the the tri-motor system from the Models S/X Plaid on one axle of the Semi, which seems both dangerous and needless, given the lack of concern among Semi users for quick acceleration].

• Pepsi is “all in” on the Tesla Semi despite all the problems [this is no surprise, given that California taxpayers are paying for all of the absurd costs of this project].

Tesla’s Semi Test Only Drove 60 MPH for 15% of the Time

All of the above tidbits on the Tesla Semi from inside PepsiCo make sense and some of it was speculated over by Jason Fenske, the brilliant man behind the YouTube channel, “Engineering Explained”.

Specifically, he said that the 500-mile test drive of the Semi was suspect, as the size of the battery pack couldn’t support a drive that long at 60 miles per hour (96 kph) of constant speed. He showed that the Tesla-filmed test drive of the Semi revealed that the Semi’s odometer was only at 60 mph for 15% of the haul (full video here).

PepsiCo is “All-In” on the Tesla Semi for ESG Points

Why is PepsiCo going to all this trouble to use such ineffective vehicles to transport their products? Because they need all the ESG points they can get by using electric vehicles (they also use Volvos, Fords & others) to transport the poison they peddle: PepsiCo’s food and beverage products are a major cause of the rising obesity problems in the US. The image below is roughly half of PepsiCo’s top products (full disclosure: I love many of them, but stopped eating them years ago).

The Semi Was a Mere Pump by Tesla; Output is Being Stalled

Why is Tesla screwing around with the Semi despite it not being a viable product and Tesla having more pressing needs with other new models? Because Elon needed a pump for Tesla’s stock back in 2017. Keep in mind that Tesla was close to bankruptcy due to troubles with the Model 3 launch between 2017 to 2019, but Elon Musk’s own admission.

And Musk recently said in June that the Semi won’t see higher-volume production until late 2024 “due to battery supply constraints”. This was a blatant lie. Recent earnings calls at Panasonic and LG Energy Solutions revealed that the two battery cell makers are seeing excess capacity as their customers’ EV models are seeing a slowdown in sales (Tesla Models S/X) and others are pushing out their EV capex to 2025 (Ford and GM).

The Semi was simply another pump that never came to fruition, somewhat like battery pack swapping back in 2014 at Tesla. It would be no surprise to see the Tesla Semi discontinued or simply not mentioned anymore after 2024 unless battery packs become as cheap as ICE vehicle engines. For now, I believe it’s safe to say that electric Semis are a joke. And Elon Musk is the master joker.

—Fin—

Nothing in this report is investment advice. The Tesla Semi is a small part of Tesla’s overall costs.