Brad, do you think, Tesla is really developing a $25 car? And if so, how the car should look like?
IMHO, $25k car is something like Corolla, ie Model 3, which cost maybe $35k to produce. Not sure, that building some 2 seats 3 wheels weirdo would open another "Model Y like" opportunity. Maybe rich Americans will buy such cars as 3rd car to the family, but for most, "Corolla like" is primary means of the transportation. On the other hand, they can do such a car in China already....
They were trying to build the $25K "Model 2" affordable EV but it hinged on getting their "unboxed" production to work, which would lower the production costs by 50%. I laughed when I saw them present this at Investors Day in March 2023.
They obviously couldn't cut costs that much (although they're still working on it) which is why the Model 2 and the Mexico factory were canceled (or put on the backburner). I wrote about it in Section 2 of my April 18th report on whether Tesla could go bankrupt or not.
Great analysis as always, Brad. Your objective views keep me from going crazy while I wait for this turkey to go down.
I did want to share 1 thought on Q3 deliveries, which I've been studying quite closely. We have solid Q3-to-date delivery data from several regions, namely the EU and China. Based on these, I'd give it a 50% likelihood Tesla meets or exceeds the Q3 delivery consensus estimate. It is far less likely they meet the Q3 buyside estimate of 472,500. That's going to take some major surprises or some major fraud.
Let me explain my thinking briefly. EU, China, and the US combine for nearly 90% of deliveries. EU deliveries are cratering (down nearly -20% y/y) while China is growing fast (could be up over 20% y/y). China is also the bigger market, but it's not big enough to offset the declines in the EU and meet these delivery estimates. They need more growth from somewhere to meet the consensus estimate. They need a lot more growth to meet the buyside estimate. Where would that growth come from? The US would be Tesla's best option by far, but I don't see how US deliveries could grow by the thousands they need to meet estimates after Elon has spent months doing everything he can to alienate his core market.
Tesla's China story looks good on the surface, but it won't save deliveries and the terrible margins will sink earnings. Hold strong, friends!
I agree that Q3 deliveries all comes down to the US, which I heard was slightly weaker than Q2, but one never knows what kind of shenanigans they pull during the last month of this quarter.
I lined up all the regions that report (China, Europe, Asia, & Oceania) and the rest is mostly North America (of which the US is probably 90%). If I keep that portion flat with Q2 (very generous assumption), give China around 187K (which looks likely at this point), Europe down 15% YoY (generous assumption), and Asia/Oceania down 5% QoQ, I get 470,000 for Q3.
Given that the midpoint of the buyside consensus range of 465,000-480,000 is 472,500, this would be a disappointment, although it might make the fanboys who think that 460,000 is consensus happy.
The stock price is acting like Q3 deliveries will be around 480,000, so I expect a possible sell-off if Tesla comes out with anything smaller than 472,500.
You are somewhat correct when you say "the stock price is acting like Q3 deliveries will be around $480,000"... but that is still unreal if you think about it. Tesla's auto and energy business is (or should be) worth $80 billion of its market cap, tops. If autos are flat this year and appear or end up being up 5% or down 2% or whatever... just suggests that the auto business should be up $10 billion or maybe down a few billion.
But we've seen the company's market cap go up over $175 billion in the last month to now almost $820 billion. Investors seriously are valuing robotaxis and optimus as $720+ billion propositions, even though they aren't close to existing as real businesses.
Its insane. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this since 2000 when dot com companies were valued at insane levels with no revenue and were nothing more than pie in the sky ideas.
$TSLA is the biggest bubble I’ve ever seen and more so than anything during the Dotcom bubble.
If you assume that Tesla’s auto business is 85% of 2025 consensus EPS of $3.13 and Energy is 15%, you get a fair value of $48 assuming a huge 15x PER for the auto division and 20x for Energy. Round it up to $50 and $TSLA should be worth $160 billion, yet it’s trading at a $832 billion valuation.
This implies that its robotaxi “technology” is worth $672 billion (I don’t see anyone valuing their Optimus humanoid robot business yet, which is understandable).
Waymo was valued at $175 billion by Morgan Stanley in 2022. While I don’t have recent numbers, Waymo is said to be close to breaking even, so let’s say a 50% increase in value to $262 billion.
Tesla has zero robotaxi capabilities right now and with every iteration of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, it seems to only get worse (recent version only gets 270 miles [432 km] until a critical disengagement vs Waymo's 17,000 miles [27,200 km]).
So, even if one generously slaps on Waymo’s $262 billion valuation onto its FSD business, you get a sum of the parts worth $422 billion or $131 per share. It’s 2x that at $260 in the premarket today.
At the risk of sounding like a complete fucking idiot thats gonna get his face ripped off...I think the sell off gets front ran this time. Everyone's all bulled up again. Gary Black is inventing the low cost model (why would Musky just hide it in his pocket and not constantly brandish it like all his other bullshit?). Peter Brandt chart guru has invented a bullish diamond top on TSLA for the fourth (!!!) time in 10 months (hint, the last three marked tops and drawdowns). I could be wrong and we could see three +10 days in a row and Im commenting on the weekly going "well..fuck me". Im just becoming more and more skeptical that this "Musk's world and we're all living in it" shtick keeps going. I just wouldnt be surprised if the deliveries ultimately get sold off regardless of the number. Or if there's big selling going into Robotaxi.
I think that the deliveries will get sold off at this point given how high expectations are on the sellside. As I mentioned in the report, anything less than 472,500--the midpoint of the buyside's estimates for Q3 deliveries--will probably be a disappointment.
Then comes Robotaxi Day (which could cause a further sell-off) but ultimately another bad set of results in Q3 earnings will likely be the key selling opportunity.
Taking into consideration the experience of past few weeks, I can easily see a scenario, when Tesla crashes the $260 barrier. All they need is to slightly beat the estimate and $20 mil. investment from the family office to help the rally going. IMHO nobody cares, that factory was closed LY in China. All they need to know is the face shipment value.
Can you imagine, that more CEOs get their own family offices armed with a call buying program? The index would not stop on its way to the stratosphere....
It's an opportunity to load up on your short if you feel bearish on Q3 earnings, which Bloomberg estimates will be out on 10/18. All of this hoopla about Q3 deliveries beating Street estimates and Robotaxi Day should be fully factored in by now.
Currently, under generous assumptions, I see Q3 non-GAAP EPS at $0.54, which is 10% lower than the Street's $0.60, however, I'm using 470K for my delivery assumption (Street is at 461K). I'll have a Q3 earnings preview out next week after the Q3 delivery report is out. Spoiler: the low interest-rate loans they ran in the US & China will hit costs hard (roughly $2,000/vehicle sold).
Two quick things I would love for you to talk about in future posts:
1. Tesla seems to be selling CT pretty well and will probably announce the launch of the lower priced version sometime in Q4. Those CT sales will count as part of total sales of vehicles, so how do you see those impact the overall picture?
2. Tesla already has the FSD as a revenue source, together with the energy sectors, energy EV credits, and the coming Semi line as well as other software related opportunities. Do you plan on factoring those in and to what extent in 2025?
1. Cybertruck is losing a lot of money and it won't be profitable at an average price of $70K until Tesla can sell over 150K units. I don't see this happening soon (or ever, given its limited appeal and high price).
2. FSD revenues are dropping like a stone. Peak revenues were $1.48 billion (my estimates) in 2023, but the price was $15,000 last year and it's $8,000 as of 2024 with a lower take rate (5% globally). This implies 2024 FSD revenues of only $700 million, which could be another big headwind for Tesla.
The Tesla Semi is still in its R&D phase as Tesla clearly states in its quarterly Shareholders Deck and there is zero data to analyze this business. As for Energy, it's not a very high value-added business (Tesla literally just packages battery cells), and rivals like Fluence and Nextera trade at average multiples of 20x 2025 EPS. I don't think you'd like the result of doing a sum of the parts based on such "low" multiples.
My theory with Tesla energy is that it only had one quarter in the sun. When you look at the pricing of the Megapack deal with Intersect, back of the envelope calcs get you to about $650k to $910k per Megapack. Thats a really really big range. Back of the envelope calc for Megapack sales in Q2 24 gets you to $1.24m per Megapack. There could be quite a bit of noise in both those numbers, but it still illustrates how quickly margins are evaporating. It also seems Lathrop was at or near max capacity in Q2 24 so how likely are significant cost savings to maintain the 20-25% profit margin? Extremely, extremely unlikely imo.
Edit: You can also look at one of the deals with the Australian company (name is slipping me). I think when I did the back of envelope math I got to ~850k per Megapack. Which, you know, you kinda expect a bulk discount, but if my math is remotely close, 300k to 400k from Q2 pricing is a massive QoQ decline.
Edit 2: And knowing Tesla, these are dogshit products that will require significantly more R&M than they think. Not sure of the accounting, if they have to accrue repair costs every quarter like a warranty, or if they can recognize it on a cash basis. But its something most Tesla bulls aren't even thinking of. It could further dent energy profitability into 2025.
Great points. While I haven't dug deep into the Megapack story (there's way too little disclosure), it just doesn't seem like a high value-added business, i.e. Tesla is simply buying battery cells from a 3rd party (probably Panasonic, as locally made cells lead to maximum IRA credits) and packaging them. Hence my view that the gross margin going above 25% on higher volumes is highly doubtful unless lower lithium prices start seeping into the equation.
There is one tidbit that a few Tesla fanboys are super hyped out over and it has to do with future orders. Here's the statement from the Q2 10-Q that they're excited about:
"As of June 30, 2024, total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $5.71 billion. Of this amount, we expect to recognize $2.56 billion in the next 12 months and the rest over the remaining performance obligation period."
They imply that this $3 billion or so that is "scheduled" to be recognized in 2025 is 100% profit as costs have already been booked. I haven't looked into this yet, but the fanboys are saying Wall Street's 2025 EPS consensus of $3.13 is too low by not factoring this in. Food for thought and I do plan to look into it.
However, like I've said, if you use the multiples of Fluence and Nextera--the closest rivals to Tesla's Megapack division, I've been told--trade at an average 2025 PER of 26x, which is lower than Tesla's 90x 2025 PER.
Only way for retail investors to invest in Musk's 'vision' is Tesla. When he talks up SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Co, XTwitter, or xAI, he's implicitly pumping TSLA to retail investors. He does a lot of that kind of pumping because it's basically legal. He's been doing a lot of his 'we're going to Mars' stuff this last week, I suspect that plays a part in TSLA being up.
Glad you're staying nimble and not going full short until earnings (or in this case perhaps 10/10). Don't want your face getting ripped off on these monkey pumps. You say $260, which certainly will be strong resistance, but I could see $300. Last time I said I might join you short if it hit $300, it topped out at $275 then bottomed below $200 but again I'll say $300 before $200.
I think the $260 line is pretty hard to stay above given the current fundamentals. But this stock has become so crazy that I wouldn't bet on it by selling calls at $300 strike.
Goldmans is telling clients to buy calls ahead of the Q3 delivery report and the 10/10 Robotaxi event. Barchart said GS was recommending the 10/25 255 calls, which had some big volumes both on Tues & Wed (over 1,100 each day).
The Goldmans analyst has a Neutral rating on Tesla so probably can't pump it that much, so it's interesting to see GS's derivatives desk pumping the the two catalysts (maybe they're behind target on their Q3 revenue target?).
Someone on Twitter pointed out that the 10/4 255 calls and the 10/11 300 calls saw a spike in volume on the GS call. The 10/4 255s had huge volumes both on Tues & Wed, but the 10/11 300s saw volumes more than double on Wed.
It feels like both the Q3 deliveries and the Robotaxi event are getting so heavily frontrun that they both could lead to a "sell the news" type of scenario, especially if the Q3 deliveries are less than the buyside average consensus of 472,500.
for Bloomberg users, easy way to see how much option market is driving share price, run study "Erlanger Put / Call Ratio" analysis on TSLA. focus on the Call to Put ratio. ---currently running ~ 2.0, as elevated as July and as elevated as Jun 23. when its not elevated, price trend is lower. this whole Q, its been well above 1.0, a very long elevated streak.
I guess the up moves in recent weeks were mostly related to the upcoming 10/10 (robotaxi) event, or rather the “hype” of said event.
Not delivery numbers or other actual data. Most Tesla investors seem to be highly irrational (otherwise the stock would already be down 80+% in my opinion).
I suspect a “buy the rumor, sell the vaporware news/presentation” after Oct 10 as a result.
Reality should sink in again by 2025 when no Optimus bots are shipping and the new “vision only” (?) robotaxis from 10/10 don’t work as advertised or can’t be even launched.
Musk remains a white-collar huckster peddling vaporware and wild promises (nothing new or shocking here for anyone who followed Tesla and Musk for some time…).
Brad, do you think, Tesla is really developing a $25 car? And if so, how the car should look like?
IMHO, $25k car is something like Corolla, ie Model 3, which cost maybe $35k to produce. Not sure, that building some 2 seats 3 wheels weirdo would open another "Model Y like" opportunity. Maybe rich Americans will buy such cars as 3rd car to the family, but for most, "Corolla like" is primary means of the transportation. On the other hand, they can do such a car in China already....
They were trying to build the $25K "Model 2" affordable EV but it hinged on getting their "unboxed" production to work, which would lower the production costs by 50%. I laughed when I saw them present this at Investors Day in March 2023.
They obviously couldn't cut costs that much (although they're still working on it) which is why the Model 2 and the Mexico factory were canceled (or put on the backburner). I wrote about it in Section 2 of my April 18th report on whether Tesla could go bankrupt or not.
Great analysis as always, Brad. Your objective views keep me from going crazy while I wait for this turkey to go down.
I did want to share 1 thought on Q3 deliveries, which I've been studying quite closely. We have solid Q3-to-date delivery data from several regions, namely the EU and China. Based on these, I'd give it a 50% likelihood Tesla meets or exceeds the Q3 delivery consensus estimate. It is far less likely they meet the Q3 buyside estimate of 472,500. That's going to take some major surprises or some major fraud.
Let me explain my thinking briefly. EU, China, and the US combine for nearly 90% of deliveries. EU deliveries are cratering (down nearly -20% y/y) while China is growing fast (could be up over 20% y/y). China is also the bigger market, but it's not big enough to offset the declines in the EU and meet these delivery estimates. They need more growth from somewhere to meet the consensus estimate. They need a lot more growth to meet the buyside estimate. Where would that growth come from? The US would be Tesla's best option by far, but I don't see how US deliveries could grow by the thousands they need to meet estimates after Elon has spent months doing everything he can to alienate his core market.
Tesla's China story looks good on the surface, but it won't save deliveries and the terrible margins will sink earnings. Hold strong, friends!
I agree that Q3 deliveries all comes down to the US, which I heard was slightly weaker than Q2, but one never knows what kind of shenanigans they pull during the last month of this quarter.
I lined up all the regions that report (China, Europe, Asia, & Oceania) and the rest is mostly North America (of which the US is probably 90%). If I keep that portion flat with Q2 (very generous assumption), give China around 187K (which looks likely at this point), Europe down 15% YoY (generous assumption), and Asia/Oceania down 5% QoQ, I get 470,000 for Q3.
Given that the midpoint of the buyside consensus range of 465,000-480,000 is 472,500, this would be a disappointment, although it might make the fanboys who think that 460,000 is consensus happy.
The stock price is acting like Q3 deliveries will be around 480,000, so I expect a possible sell-off if Tesla comes out with anything smaller than 472,500.
You are somewhat correct when you say "the stock price is acting like Q3 deliveries will be around $480,000"... but that is still unreal if you think about it. Tesla's auto and energy business is (or should be) worth $80 billion of its market cap, tops. If autos are flat this year and appear or end up being up 5% or down 2% or whatever... just suggests that the auto business should be up $10 billion or maybe down a few billion.
But we've seen the company's market cap go up over $175 billion in the last month to now almost $820 billion. Investors seriously are valuing robotaxis and optimus as $720+ billion propositions, even though they aren't close to existing as real businesses.
Its insane. I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this since 2000 when dot com companies were valued at insane levels with no revenue and were nothing more than pie in the sky ideas.
$TSLA is the biggest bubble I’ve ever seen and more so than anything during the Dotcom bubble.
If you assume that Tesla’s auto business is 85% of 2025 consensus EPS of $3.13 and Energy is 15%, you get a fair value of $48 assuming a huge 15x PER for the auto division and 20x for Energy. Round it up to $50 and $TSLA should be worth $160 billion, yet it’s trading at a $832 billion valuation.
This implies that its robotaxi “technology” is worth $672 billion (I don’t see anyone valuing their Optimus humanoid robot business yet, which is understandable).
Waymo was valued at $175 billion by Morgan Stanley in 2022. While I don’t have recent numbers, Waymo is said to be close to breaking even, so let’s say a 50% increase in value to $262 billion.
Tesla has zero robotaxi capabilities right now and with every iteration of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, it seems to only get worse (recent version only gets 270 miles [432 km] until a critical disengagement vs Waymo's 17,000 miles [27,200 km]).
So, even if one generously slaps on Waymo’s $262 billion valuation onto its FSD business, you get a sum of the parts worth $422 billion or $131 per share. It’s 2x that at $260 in the premarket today.
Wouldn’t be surprised if TSLA is being pumped for Elon to sell shares. 🤔
At the risk of sounding like a complete fucking idiot thats gonna get his face ripped off...I think the sell off gets front ran this time. Everyone's all bulled up again. Gary Black is inventing the low cost model (why would Musky just hide it in his pocket and not constantly brandish it like all his other bullshit?). Peter Brandt chart guru has invented a bullish diamond top on TSLA for the fourth (!!!) time in 10 months (hint, the last three marked tops and drawdowns). I could be wrong and we could see three +10 days in a row and Im commenting on the weekly going "well..fuck me". Im just becoming more and more skeptical that this "Musk's world and we're all living in it" shtick keeps going. I just wouldnt be surprised if the deliveries ultimately get sold off regardless of the number. Or if there's big selling going into Robotaxi.
I think that the deliveries will get sold off at this point given how high expectations are on the sellside. As I mentioned in the report, anything less than 472,500--the midpoint of the buyside's estimates for Q3 deliveries--will probably be a disappointment.
Then comes Robotaxi Day (which could cause a further sell-off) but ultimately another bad set of results in Q3 earnings will likely be the key selling opportunity.
Taking into consideration the experience of past few weeks, I can easily see a scenario, when Tesla crashes the $260 barrier. All they need is to slightly beat the estimate and $20 mil. investment from the family office to help the rally going. IMHO nobody cares, that factory was closed LY in China. All they need to know is the face shipment value.
Can you imagine, that more CEOs get their own family offices armed with a call buying program? The index would not stop on its way to the stratosphere....
Thanks Brad. I noticed the stock pop recently on zero news so figured it was not based on anything that matters.
It's an opportunity to load up on your short if you feel bearish on Q3 earnings, which Bloomberg estimates will be out on 10/18. All of this hoopla about Q3 deliveries beating Street estimates and Robotaxi Day should be fully factored in by now.
Currently, under generous assumptions, I see Q3 non-GAAP EPS at $0.54, which is 10% lower than the Street's $0.60, however, I'm using 470K for my delivery assumption (Street is at 461K). I'll have a Q3 earnings preview out next week after the Q3 delivery report is out. Spoiler: the low interest-rate loans they ran in the US & China will hit costs hard (roughly $2,000/vehicle sold).
Brad, great analysis and update, as always.
Two quick things I would love for you to talk about in future posts:
1. Tesla seems to be selling CT pretty well and will probably announce the launch of the lower priced version sometime in Q4. Those CT sales will count as part of total sales of vehicles, so how do you see those impact the overall picture?
2. Tesla already has the FSD as a revenue source, together with the energy sectors, energy EV credits, and the coming Semi line as well as other software related opportunities. Do you plan on factoring those in and to what extent in 2025?
1. Cybertruck is losing a lot of money and it won't be profitable at an average price of $70K until Tesla can sell over 150K units. I don't see this happening soon (or ever, given its limited appeal and high price).
2. FSD revenues are dropping like a stone. Peak revenues were $1.48 billion (my estimates) in 2023, but the price was $15,000 last year and it's $8,000 as of 2024 with a lower take rate (5% globally). This implies 2024 FSD revenues of only $700 million, which could be another big headwind for Tesla.
The Tesla Semi is still in its R&D phase as Tesla clearly states in its quarterly Shareholders Deck and there is zero data to analyze this business. As for Energy, it's not a very high value-added business (Tesla literally just packages battery cells), and rivals like Fluence and Nextera trade at average multiples of 20x 2025 EPS. I don't think you'd like the result of doing a sum of the parts based on such "low" multiples.
OK, cool Brad
That helps a lot to understand how you are thinking about these parts of Tesla’s business.
For CT I was really only referring to it in the context of overall sales numbers.
You mentioned about 472000 as the expected level and sales of CT would count into that. I can see about 10K CT sales in Q3
My theory with Tesla energy is that it only had one quarter in the sun. When you look at the pricing of the Megapack deal with Intersect, back of the envelope calcs get you to about $650k to $910k per Megapack. Thats a really really big range. Back of the envelope calc for Megapack sales in Q2 24 gets you to $1.24m per Megapack. There could be quite a bit of noise in both those numbers, but it still illustrates how quickly margins are evaporating. It also seems Lathrop was at or near max capacity in Q2 24 so how likely are significant cost savings to maintain the 20-25% profit margin? Extremely, extremely unlikely imo.
Edit: You can also look at one of the deals with the Australian company (name is slipping me). I think when I did the back of envelope math I got to ~850k per Megapack. Which, you know, you kinda expect a bulk discount, but if my math is remotely close, 300k to 400k from Q2 pricing is a massive QoQ decline.
Edit 2: And knowing Tesla, these are dogshit products that will require significantly more R&M than they think. Not sure of the accounting, if they have to accrue repair costs every quarter like a warranty, or if they can recognize it on a cash basis. But its something most Tesla bulls aren't even thinking of. It could further dent energy profitability into 2025.
Great points. While I haven't dug deep into the Megapack story (there's way too little disclosure), it just doesn't seem like a high value-added business, i.e. Tesla is simply buying battery cells from a 3rd party (probably Panasonic, as locally made cells lead to maximum IRA credits) and packaging them. Hence my view that the gross margin going above 25% on higher volumes is highly doubtful unless lower lithium prices start seeping into the equation.
There is one tidbit that a few Tesla fanboys are super hyped out over and it has to do with future orders. Here's the statement from the Q2 10-Q that they're excited about:
"As of June 30, 2024, total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $5.71 billion. Of this amount, we expect to recognize $2.56 billion in the next 12 months and the rest over the remaining performance obligation period."
They imply that this $3 billion or so that is "scheduled" to be recognized in 2025 is 100% profit as costs have already been booked. I haven't looked into this yet, but the fanboys are saying Wall Street's 2025 EPS consensus of $3.13 is too low by not factoring this in. Food for thought and I do plan to look into it.
However, like I've said, if you use the multiples of Fluence and Nextera--the closest rivals to Tesla's Megapack division, I've been told--trade at an average 2025 PER of 26x, which is lower than Tesla's 90x 2025 PER.
Only way for retail investors to invest in Musk's 'vision' is Tesla. When he talks up SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Co, XTwitter, or xAI, he's implicitly pumping TSLA to retail investors. He does a lot of that kind of pumping because it's basically legal. He's been doing a lot of his 'we're going to Mars' stuff this last week, I suspect that plays a part in TSLA being up.
Glad you're staying nimble and not going full short until earnings (or in this case perhaps 10/10). Don't want your face getting ripped off on these monkey pumps. You say $260, which certainly will be strong resistance, but I could see $300. Last time I said I might join you short if it hit $300, it topped out at $275 then bottomed below $200 but again I'll say $300 before $200.
I think the $260 line is pretty hard to stay above given the current fundamentals. But this stock has become so crazy that I wouldn't bet on it by selling calls at $300 strike.
saw there's massive OI for the 10/11 DTE 260Cs---same as this week (~ 60k).
no other strike that week stands out. and the week between (10/4) has about 1/5 as much but at 270C
point being: your 260 call seems about right.
volume sure is drying up this week.
Goldmans is telling clients to buy calls ahead of the Q3 delivery report and the 10/10 Robotaxi event. Barchart said GS was recommending the 10/25 255 calls, which had some big volumes both on Tues & Wed (over 1,100 each day).
The Goldmans analyst has a Neutral rating on Tesla so probably can't pump it that much, so it's interesting to see GS's derivatives desk pumping the the two catalysts (maybe they're behind target on their Q3 revenue target?).
Someone on Twitter pointed out that the 10/4 255 calls and the 10/11 300 calls saw a spike in volume on the GS call. The 10/4 255s had huge volumes both on Tues & Wed, but the 10/11 300s saw volumes more than double on Wed.
It feels like both the Q3 deliveries and the Robotaxi event are getting so heavily frontrun that they both could lead to a "sell the news" type of scenario, especially if the Q3 deliveries are less than the buyside average consensus of 472,500.
"could lead to sell the news?"
sure seems like a monster pump & dump. everyone must know the real deal on it (13 miles between interventions of latest FSD).
this is the absolute most insane thing i've ever seen in markets. you can see this shit with penny stocks. but its an $800B S&P member.
god i hope it stays below 290. i'm running out of room on this turkey. kaynes was right.
Should this damn thing go to $290, then I better make sure, I have the ability to open an position there.
PS one more:
for Bloomberg users, easy way to see how much option market is driving share price, run study "Erlanger Put / Call Ratio" analysis on TSLA. focus on the Call to Put ratio. ---currently running ~ 2.0, as elevated as July and as elevated as Jun 23. when its not elevated, price trend is lower. this whole Q, its been well above 1.0, a very long elevated streak.
I was listening until you used the word “fundamentals.” What a joke.
I guess the up moves in recent weeks were mostly related to the upcoming 10/10 (robotaxi) event, or rather the “hype” of said event.
Not delivery numbers or other actual data. Most Tesla investors seem to be highly irrational (otherwise the stock would already be down 80+% in my opinion).
I suspect a “buy the rumor, sell the vaporware news/presentation” after Oct 10 as a result.
Reality should sink in again by 2025 when no Optimus bots are shipping and the new “vision only” (?) robotaxis from 10/10 don’t work as advertised or can’t be even launched.
Musk remains a white-collar huckster peddling vaporware and wild promises (nothing new or shocking here for anyone who followed Tesla and Musk for some time…).