Highly certain robotaxi news release was not vetted by $TSLA’s board before being tweeted as required by Musk’s settlement w SEC. Pretty blatant attempt to stop stock slide. Chances of robotaxi fleet materializing this year is zero.
His robotaxi tweet definitely wasn't approved by anyone.
Morgan Stanley--which shills for TSLA due to the TSLA-based loans they've extended to Musk--said that Tesla's robotaxi may not even contribute to earnings by 2030.
I don't see how the analysts covering TSLA can keep their lofty earnings estimates if Tesla has no new models from here. 95% of global sales are made up by the Models 3 & Y, which are 7 & 5 years old, respectively. They should both have undergone full model changes.
Motorhead...Some of the finest content you've ever published summed up in these words...
"Look forward to my report on how Tesla goes bankrupt next week."
So, Tesla goes bankrupt NEXT WEEK, huh? To quote the great Yul Brynner as Pharaoh, "So shall it be written, so shall it be done." HA! Well said, Motorhead.
Now, as you have commented on, I expect we might see some hockey stick moves if the price encroaches upon $160 next week. Those "dip buyers" buy sloppy.
With Jerome the Printer ready to swing into action, all outcomes are possible.
I fully agree Musk was pressured by the Reuters report to announce the robotaxi by 8/8. They must have met with unsurmountable difficulties with model 2. Is it the cost of production/profitability? Have they managed to reduce cost by 50%? Complexity in the engineering so ramping up production will be extremely difficult? Robotaxi will share the same platform as model 2, so looks like the car itself will persist, just won't be produced at the cost/volume promised by Elon?
The minute I heard that the Model 2 would have 50% lower production vs the Models 3 & Y, I fell out of my seat laughing. If there were a way to do this, Toyota would've already been on top of it. Even a 10% cut in production costs is nearly impossible. Tesla found out and that's likely why the Model 2 was canceled. Now they have no new products for at least 3-4 years.
great piece! Thank you for letting my head to go around this issue :-). I got 2 questions if you do not mind:
1) As a bloody foreigner, I am sometimes bit lost in the "Musk speak" vocabulary. The term "Unveil", does it mean, they going to show a functional service or are they going just to publish "Optimus like" video of a car, running by itself in some carefully geofenced area?
I am probably bias, I do not believe, Tesla has functional Robotaxi. A car without steering = full Tesla liability. Not even Musk is so stupid to try that. Not to mention, that they should get some certification, a license to operate. So I vote for the "Optimus like" video. What is your take?
2) Report about Tesla going bust - I just hope, you know what you are doing. You are not exactly "nobody" and such article can cause troubles. Musk is desperate, I have just seen 5 minutes of his exhibition at SpaceX and he is loosing on all fronts. Not suggesting he is going to kill you :-), but his lawyers may focus their attention your way.
With Model 2 out and Robotaxi in, Tesla is going to suffer financially. You are valuable source if information even without that BK report.
I am seriously considering taking Monday afternoon off (CET), because the "Tesla show" is going to take my attention.
There is typically about 4 years between the time we first see a Tesla model and its actual launch, often many more. If there is a new car, e.g. based on the model 2 platform, we're still years away.
There is already a $25K Tesla. It is the model 3 in 6-9 months.
Coincidentally ~$155 is the vwap anchored to the June 2019 low, below that the selling could accelerate. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WKcbMQsX
Nice find. Thank you.
“Bankrupt by 2027” may be too generous. TSLA sales will slow gradually then suddenly.
The price-cutting is also a deflationary trap: why buy something today when it’s cheaper tomorrow?
Thanks for your work!
Cars depreciate fast enough without manufacturer price cuts boosting the rate
Highly certain robotaxi news release was not vetted by $TSLA’s board before being tweeted as required by Musk’s settlement w SEC. Pretty blatant attempt to stop stock slide. Chances of robotaxi fleet materializing this year is zero.
His robotaxi tweet definitely wasn't approved by anyone.
Morgan Stanley--which shills for TSLA due to the TSLA-based loans they've extended to Musk--said that Tesla's robotaxi may not even contribute to earnings by 2030.
I don't see how the analysts covering TSLA can keep their lofty earnings estimates if Tesla has no new models from here. 95% of global sales are made up by the Models 3 & Y, which are 7 & 5 years old, respectively. They should both have undergone full model changes.
Tesla’s cars are so boring and stale. They’ve become the Buick of EVs.
Excellent, as always.
*libel, not liable
Thanks for the heads up. I need to hire an editor lol.
Motorhead...Some of the finest content you've ever published summed up in these words...
"Look forward to my report on how Tesla goes bankrupt next week."
So, Tesla goes bankrupt NEXT WEEK, huh? To quote the great Yul Brynner as Pharaoh, "So shall it be written, so shall it be done." HA! Well said, Motorhead.
Now, as you have commented on, I expect we might see some hockey stick moves if the price encroaches upon $160 next week. Those "dip buyers" buy sloppy.
With Jerome the Printer ready to swing into action, all outcomes are possible.
I fully agree Musk was pressured by the Reuters report to announce the robotaxi by 8/8. They must have met with unsurmountable difficulties with model 2. Is it the cost of production/profitability? Have they managed to reduce cost by 50%? Complexity in the engineering so ramping up production will be extremely difficult? Robotaxi will share the same platform as model 2, so looks like the car itself will persist, just won't be produced at the cost/volume promised by Elon?
The minute I heard that the Model 2 would have 50% lower production vs the Models 3 & Y, I fell out of my seat laughing. If there were a way to do this, Toyota would've already been on top of it. Even a 10% cut in production costs is nearly impossible. Tesla found out and that's likely why the Model 2 was canceled. Now they have no new products for at least 3-4 years.
Fix your sentence, you will issue a report about Teslas impending bankruptcy next week. Not a report about teslas bankruptcy next week.
Thanks. It's fixed now. Was writing in a hurry, which is never good.
Brad,
great piece! Thank you for letting my head to go around this issue :-). I got 2 questions if you do not mind:
1) As a bloody foreigner, I am sometimes bit lost in the "Musk speak" vocabulary. The term "Unveil", does it mean, they going to show a functional service or are they going just to publish "Optimus like" video of a car, running by itself in some carefully geofenced area?
I am probably bias, I do not believe, Tesla has functional Robotaxi. A car without steering = full Tesla liability. Not even Musk is so stupid to try that. Not to mention, that they should get some certification, a license to operate. So I vote for the "Optimus like" video. What is your take?
2) Report about Tesla going bust - I just hope, you know what you are doing. You are not exactly "nobody" and such article can cause troubles. Musk is desperate, I have just seen 5 minutes of his exhibition at SpaceX and he is loosing on all fronts. Not suggesting he is going to kill you :-), but his lawyers may focus their attention your way.
With Model 2 out and Robotaxi in, Tesla is going to suffer financially. You are valuable source if information even without that BK report.
I am seriously considering taking Monday afternoon off (CET), because the "Tesla show" is going to take my attention.
There is typically about 4 years between the time we first see a Tesla model and its actual launch, often many more. If there is a new car, e.g. based on the model 2 platform, we're still years away.
https://www.threads.net/@trackingelon/post/C5ZfPM1P2e4
We have seen another "$160 event" in the past few days, specifically April 5th.
This is excellent. Thank you.
I think price cuts will stop working and sales of Tesla's old models will drop faster.
Another reason to halt Model 2 may be to preserve cash, preparing for worse times.
This robotaxi pump sure looks thoughtless.