The Cybercab launch event in Austin yesterday was highly disappointing to Tesla fans who expected it to be livestreamed for all to see. Instead, the event was hidden behind a strict embargo, as several Tesla influencers explained (see Video 1) before the mandated “social media blackout” began:
Attendees had to sign non-disclosure agreements before entering the event scene.
No journalists or Wall Street analysts were invited. The crowd was 100% Tesla influencers and Tesla employees.
No backpacks or large bags allowed in the event.
Anyone’s plus-one couldn’t be an influencer or member of the press.
Video 1: Tesla Influencer Explains Tesla’s Secrecy Rules for Event
Source: Twitter.
The disappointment among Tesla fans was palpable, and the tweet from one of them in Figure 1 is a perfect example.
Figure 1: Cybercab Event Disappoints Tesla Fans
Source: Twitter.
What’s more surprising is that Musk was a “no-show” at this highly anticipated event, which makes one wonder how momentous the Cybercab’s launch really is for Tesla.
Figure 2: No Elon Musk at the Cybercab Launch Event
Source: Twitter.
The huge Cybercab traffic on Twitter yesterday (see Figure 3 for one of 6 tweets from Tesla’s official account) and the 5.4% spike in the share price made it seem as if Tesla was about to announce the deployment of thousands of Cybercabs nationwide. The details disclosed, however, show that this is merely a “soft launch” at best, and the key points that weren’t mentioned all but prove this.
Figure 3: Tesla Tweets a Cybercab Ad
Source: Twitter.
This makes the 26% rise in the share price since its $298 low for the year on July 29th all the more spurious, as that low was hit after Q2 results a week earlier showed not only cash burn, but also the prospect of losses in light of Tesla’s Q2 operating margin of 1.4%, after Q2 deliveries near record highs.
The Few Positives From the Event
These are some of the key takeaways from the event, followed below by my views on why Tesla even held such an event:
Tesla’s robotaxi fleet mileage milestone: Tesla announced that its fleet has reached 1 million unsupervised miles traveled, but made no mention of crash rates.
Low-cost production without numbers: Emphasis on many points that lower the Cybercab’s production costs, but no indication of whether it could be profitable at a price tag of $30,000, as Musk promised. Much of this was attributed to Tesla’s new “unboxed” modular production system, replacing body parts made by injection molds to avoid the high cost of painting the car, and more.
Cybercab uses Tesla’s infamous 4680 battery cells: The Cybercab has a 48 kWh battery pack (nearly half of the Model Y’s 80 kWh) and will use its in-house-made 4680 battery cells. This is clearly another ploy to earn more IRA 4X credits from the US government by making EV-grade materials in the US, rather than importing them from Asia. This earned Tesla $625 million in 2024 and $565 million in 2025, but they’re so bad that US customer complaints led Tesla to pull them from the Model Y in 2023 and caused a wave of Model Y order cancellations in Europe last April. They essentially reduce range by 8%, but increase charging time by 40% compared to the cells Tesla sources from its battery cell suppliers.
Long-term pricing target of $0.20 per mile: This is another “pie-in-the-sky” Musk target, as it’s 85% lower than the average Uber fare of $1.30 per mile, and 93% below Waymo’s $2.70/mile in cities like Phoenix, AZ.
Tesla opens fleet orders of the Cybercab: Tesla’s website launched an order page for fleet orders after the event (see Figure 4), which is ironic, as Musk himself recently admitted that Tesla never saw any third-party orders for FSD.
Cybercab will be touring Asia this month: Tesla also announced that the Cybercab would be on display in Asia during September, including China, Japan, and Hong Kong.
Figure 4: Tesla Aiming for Fleet Orders of the Cybercab
Source: Tesla.
The Negatives About Tesla’s Cybercab
These are the following negatives about the Cybercab and the entire event, which was basically an announcement of the transition of the production Cybercab into limited commercial robotaxi use in Austin: