Tesla Cybertruck Problems? Deliveries Pushed Out to 2025

Delivery timing has changed from May to 2025. Order cancellations or production problems?

The estimated delivery time for a Tesla Cybertruck has been pushed out from May 2024 to 2025 on Tesla’s website. This comes at a time when Tesla is trying to sell the most expensive “Cyberbeast” trim at $99,990 this year to cover the huge start-up and production costs (stainless steel is used, which is more expensive than regular steel and requires more labor costs to fit onto the vehicle).

I was attacked today on Twitter after posting that there may be production problems or quality issues that need to be fixed. There have been more pictures of bricked Cybertrucks on Twitter than can be imagined.

Figure 1: Getting Hated by Fanboys for Pointing Out the Truth

A few hours later, Musk’s chief social media surrogate, Omar Qazi (who goes by the handle “WholeMarsBlog” on Twitter), tried to quell the situation by saying—like all other Tesla fans did—that the Cyberbeast is “just sold out for 2024”.

Figure 2: Musk’s Chief Surrogate Comes to the Rescue

There is no way of knowing what’s actually going on at the most secretive carmaker in the world. But, given the huge start-up costs of this vehicle, it’s hard to imagine Tesla pushing out sales to next year after having said just last week, that delivery could be had in 2024 (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Cybertruck Was Available in 2024 Three Days Ago

Source: Wayback Machine

Here is what I can comfortably assume about the Cybertruck:

• The only variant on sale now is the Cyberbeast at $99,990.

• As of a few days ago, one could order and receive delivery this year (one Twitter account said they were offered delivery in May).

• The number of customers who’ve received delivery of their Cybertrucks only to have them fail is astoundingly high. Here’s just one example:

Figure 4: One of Many Cybertrucks Getting Towed

• Tesla makes the Cybertruck’s 4680 battery cells in-house as Panasonic has delayed its full ramp-up of those cells at its Japanese facility from mid-2024 to Q4 of this year. This has presented huge profit headwinds, which Tesla has noted in its Shareholder Decks last year. Making battery cells is an art, which is why there are only 4 major makers in the industry. Tesla can’t make cells efficiently by itself.

• Nevertheless, Tesla proudly announced that its in-house 4680 cell output reached high enough levels to support output of 1,000 Cybertrucks per week in March.

• According to TroyTeslike’s estimates, Tesla produced around 3,500 Cybertrucks in Q1. Assuming they can do 800 Cybertrucks/week from here on through Q3, we have another 20,800 by Q3 end.

• If Panasonic allows Cybertruck output to double in Q4, there should be an extra 20,800 units produced in Q4, with a grand total of 41,600 for 2024, which is near record highs for a vehicle priced at over $100,000.

Hence my suspicion that there are some sort of production or quality problems with the Cybertruck (much of which are playing out in real time on TikTok, Twitter and YouTube).

Tesla is Hiding Details About the Cybertruck:

• Musk has said that the Cybertruck order backlog is “over 1 million” units. Tesla fans say it’s over 2 million units. Tesla won’t disclose the real number, likely because it’s under 1 million units, in my opinion.

• The downpayment for a Cybertruck ranged from $100 to $150. Because many knew that Tesla’s FSD price was going to rise, there were double to triple orders for the Cybertruck among fans who thought they could make money by flipping it upon delivery. They’re all bag holders now or canceling their orders.

• Recent wholesale auctions in March could not get a bid above $177,000 versus the $99,990 MSRP. This is a huge drop from earlier auction sales at nearly $300,000.

• The fact is that the Cybertruck went on sale at an average price that was 52% higher than originally announced in 2019 and with a driving range that is 13% lower on average (see Figure 5). This points to potentially huge order cancellations.

Figure 5: Cybertruck Original Specs in 2019 vs Now

Below are 3 Highly Suspicious Changes in Tesla’s Disclosures Regarding the Cybertruck:

1. Tesla stopped disclosing “Customer Deposits” in its Shareholder Deck (which is released the day of earnings results) as of January’s release of Q4 2023 results. The Cybertruck had only been on sale as of November end in 2023. Customer Deposits in Q4 2023 were only down 2% QoQ, but off their Q2 2022 high by 26%.

2. They buried Customer Deposits from a single line item on the balance sheet into Accrued Liabilities as of Q4 2023 and changed the 2022 numbers as well.

3. Tesla also stuffed the Cybertruck delivery numbers into the ailing Model S/X sales numbers as of Q4 2023. This is a huge red flag. If Tesla really had over 1 million orders in its backlog for the Cybertruck, why don’t they present it as a separate line item in their Production & Delivery reports?

   Figure 6: Tesla Hides Cybertruck Sales in “Other Models”

   

Figure 7: Tesla’s Valuations & Returns vs Rivals (Ranked by Pre-Tax Margins)

Figure 8: Tesla’s Valuations & Returns Among the Magnificent 7 (Ranked by FCF Yield)