Tesla Charts & Tables for the Week Ahead (Mar 2, 2025)

Musk tweets that profits could be up 10x while Europe is down 35% in February.

Topics Covered in This Report

• Musk pumped Tesla on Saturday for the first time in ages: In response to a tweet showing that Wall Street sees Tesla growing profits more than other members of the Magnificent 7 by 2029, Musk wrote that, 1,000% “is possible” with “outstanding execution” (see Figure 1). This implies that Tesla will have a 2029 EPS of $23.95 or 258% higher than the Street’s $8.57. He usually says stuff like this on earnings calls, but the fact that he’s tweeting about means he’s likely concerned about Tesla’s falling share price.

• Refreshed Model Y orders look weak in China: The Model Y is Tesla’s best-selling model at 66% of global sales and 67% of global production capacity, yet saw its highly anticipated “refresh” launched with only a 2 to 4-week wait time (see Figure 7). This is worse than the 6 to 9-week delivery time for the refreshed Model 3 in October 2023.

• Tesla January output in China sees largest annual drop of 30%: Data out overnight shows that Tesla saw a 30% YoY drop in January output at its Shanghai factory—which has generated 75% of Tesla’s profits since 2020 (details under Figure 1 in this recent report). Output was expected to be low due to the different timing of the lunar new year and the downtime in January and February to prepare the refreshed Model Y. But Wall Street consensus estimates of $0.52 for Q1 are way too high given the steep drop in exports (see Figure 5).

• February sales in Europe reported so far fall by over 35% YoY: With only 6 countries reporting so far, February sales in Europe are down by 35% YoY (see Figure 8). This is a lower decline than January’s 57% YoY for those countries, but the hurdle doesn’t get lower from here and the anti-Musk sentiment in Europe is likely growing.

• Tesla is the worst-performing auto stock in 2025; BYD is the best: Tesla is down 28% YTD while BYD is up 37% (see Figure 11). But since Trump won the election, Tesla is still up 17% albeit down 39% from its December 17th all-time high of $480. The best-performing auto stocks this year are Chinese and European carmakers. While there’s a credible growth story for Chinese auto stocks like BYD and Geely, it’s hard to say the same for European carmakers, which are likely just seeing a bounce back in their bombed out share prices since the start of 2025.

• Trump’s crypto reserve could boost Tesla and other tech stocks a bit: Crypto got a boost from President Trump’s announcement of a “US Crypto Reserve” yesterday. The reserve includes Bitcoin (which Tesla owns and which tends to either track or lead the Nasdaq 100) so this could help Tesla this week. Whether it’s a coincidence or not, Tesla rose by 3.9% into the close last Friday and Figure 3 shows the top-10 unusual options trades in Tesla that day.