Tesla Charts & Tables For the Week Ahead

The stock has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 19% this year, yet the downside appears deeper given its delinquent CEO.

• I wouldn’t buy the dip here or short more at $338 and an RSI of 39. But I’m keen to see a pop in the stock price to short more, given the dismal outlook as Musk destroys Tesla’s brand.

• Stock looking weaker: Tesla is down 16.4% in just over 7 weeks since 2025 began versus the Nasdaq 100’s rise of 2.9%, but Tesla is still up by 34.3% since Trump won versus the Nasdaq 100’s gain of only 6.9%.

• Earnings estimates diving: The Street’s estimates for Tesla’s 2025 EPS are down by 12.8% since Trump won and 13.5% since January 2nd’s weak delivery report (see details below).

• Earnings are starting to matter: While Tesla was the biggest beneficiary of Trump’s election victory on November 5th, its 2025 earnings estimates have dropped the most among US mega-cap stocks ever since. This is because the global auto sector is in a recession: Tesla saw weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 results, after which 2025 EPS estimates dropped harder and lower.

• Valuations are still inexplicable by normal standards: Tesla was the 17th largest carmaker in 2024 yet trades at a 13.5% premium to the combined market values of the Top 16 larger carmakers. Tesla’s 2025 PER of 119x is even 322% higher than the average PER for the Magnificent 6 (see Figure 7).

• Oversold indicators are louder but there’s no support: While Tesla’s stock chart looks oversold, its RSI of 39.6 is above 30.2 seven trading days ago on February 11th when Tesla was at $349 vs last Friday at $338. The long-term chart doesn’t look like it has much support (see Figure 1).

• Tesla is worth $16 if valued as other carmakers: The average carmaker trades at 0.7x PBR (price to shareholders equity per share) yet Tesla trades at a PBR of 15x. Watch this multiple shrink down to automakers’ average valuations as Tesla burns its “shareholders equity” from here.

Share Price: No Support

Figure 1 shows Tesla’s chart since its low of $108 on January 3, 2023. This $108 level will be important if you believe Tesla will implode on bad results from here, as it was 74% lower than its (then) all-time high of $411 on November 4, 2021, and at a 48-week low since August 2020.